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\title{Drought-induced vertical displacements and water loss in the Po river
basin (Northern Italy) from GNSS measurements}



\author[1]{Francesco Pintori}%
\author[2]{Enrico Serpelloni}%
\affil[1]{Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Settore di Geofisica, Università di Bologna}%
\affil[2]{Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia}%


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  \date{May 07, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
We study vertical ground displacement time series from GNSS stations to
measure deformation associated with hydrological drought in the Po river
basin. Focusing on interannual trend changes, rather than seasonal
(annual) components, we found a clear spatially correlated deformation
signal that is temporally (anti)correlated with changes in the Po river
level and the SPEI-12 drought index, with stations moving upward during
periods of river/index level decrease and vice versa. In the 2021-2022
time span, which culminated in the most severe drought of the last two
centuries, we estimate the amount and spatial distribution of water loss
in the basin and its surroundings. Excluding the seasonal signals,
between January 2021 and August 2022, the GNSS stations underwent
uplift, up to 7 mm, which corresponds to \textasciitilde{}70 Gtons of
water loss. Compared to GLDAS and GRACE estimates, GNSS results show a
similar temporal evolution of water content but a more heterogeneous
distribution of values. We show that continuous GNSS networks provide an
effective way to monitor multiannual trend changes in water storage even
in small water basins and serve as a reliable indicator of drought
severity.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


We study vertical ground displacement time series from GNSS stations to
measure deformation associated with hydrological drought in the Po river
basin. Focusing on interannual trend changes, rather than seasonal
(annual) components, we found a clear spatially correlated deformation
signal that is temporally (anti)correlated with changes in the Po river
level and the SPEI-12 drought index, with stations moving upward during
periods of river/index level decrease and vice versa. In the 2021-2022
time span, which culminated in the most severe drought of the last two
centuries, we estimate the amount and spatial distribution of water loss
in the basin and its surroundings. Excluding the seasonal signals,
between January 2021 and August 2022, the GNSS stations underwent
uplift, up to 7 mm, which corresponds to \textasciitilde{}70 Gtons of
water loss. Compared to GLDAS and GRACE estimates, GNSS results show a
similar temporal evolution of water content but a more heterogeneous
distribution of values. We show that continuous GNSS networks provide an
effective way to monitor multiannual trend changes in water storage even
in small water basins and serve as a reliable indicator of drought
severity.

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