Abstract
There can be few greater scientific challenges than predicting the
response of the global system to anthropogenic disruption, even with the
array of sensing tools available in the “digital Anthropocene”. Rather
than depend on one approach, climate science thus employs a hierarchy of
models, trading off the tractability of Energy Balance Models (EBMs)
[1] against the detail of Global Circulation Models. Since the 70s
Hasselmann-type stochastic EBMs have allowed treatment of climate
fluctuations and noise. They remain topical, e.g. their use by Cox et al
to propose an emergent constraint on climate sensitivity [2].
Insight comes from exploiting a mapping between Hasselmann’s EBM and the
original stochastic model in physics, the Langevin equation of 1908.
However, it has recently been claimed that the wide range of time scales
in the global system may require a heavy-tailed response [3,4] to
perturbation, instead of the familiar exponential. Evidence for this
includes long range memory (LRM) in GMT, and the success of a fractional
Gaussian model in predicting GMT [5]. Our line of enquiry is
complementary to [3-5] and proposes mapping a model well known in
statistical mechanics, the Green-Kubo “Generalised Langevin Equation”
(GLE) to generalise the Hasselmann EBM [6]. If present LRM then
simplifies the GLE to a fractional Langevin equation (FLE). As well as a
noise term the FLM has a dissipation term not present in [3,4],
generalising Hasselmann’s damping constant. We describe the
corresponding EBM [7] that maps to the FLE, discuss its solutions,
and relate it to existing models. References: [1] Ghil M (2019)
Earth and Space Sciences, in press. [2] Cox P et al. (2018) Nature
553: 319-322 [3] Rypdal K. (2012) JGR 117: D06115 [4] Rypdal M
and Rypdal K (2014) J Climate 27: 5240-5258. [5] Lovejoy et al
(2015) ESDD 6:1–22 [6] Watkins N W (2013) GRL 40:1-9 [7]
Watkins et al, to be submitted.