Measuring “weather whiplash” events in North America: An increased
frequency linked with rapid Arctic warming?
Abstract
The term “weather whiplash” was recently coined to describe abrupt
swings in weather conditions from one extreme to another, such as from a
frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth or from drought to prolonged
precipitation. These events are often highly disruptive to agriculture,
ecosystems, and daily activities. In this study we propose and
demonstrate a novel metric to identify weather whiplash events (WWEs)
and track their frequency over time. We define a WWE as a transition
from one persistent large-scale circulation regime to another distinctly
different one, as determined using an objective pattern cluster analysis
called self-organizing maps (SOMs). We focus on the domain spanning
North America and the eastern N. Pacific Ocean. A matrix of
representative atmospheric patterns in 500-hPa geopotential height
anomalies is created. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with
long-duration events (defined as lasting 4 or more days) in each
pattern, as well as the associated extremes in temperature and
precipitation. A WWE is detected when the pattern two days following a
long-duration event is substantially different, measured using internal
matrix distances and thresholds. Changes in WWE frequency are assessed
objectively based on reanalysis and climate model output, and in the
future with climate model projections. Temporal changes in the future
under RCP 8.5 forcing are more robust than those during recent decades,
with consistent increases (decreases) in WWEs originating in patterns
with an anomalously warm (cold) Arctic.