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Increased winter runoff in Siberia modeled with tree rings as evidence for the recent high rate of permafrost degradation
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  • Irina P Panyushkina,
  • David M Meko,
  • Alexander I Shiklomanov,
  • Richard Douglas Thaxton
Irina P Panyushkina
University of Arizona

Corresponding Author:ipanyush@arizona.edu

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David M Meko
University of Arizona
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Alexander I Shiklomanov
University of New Hampshire
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Richard Douglas Thaxton
University of Arizona
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Abstract

The instrumental data shows 7%-20% increase in annual discharge of the major Eurasian rivers like Ob, Yenisei and Lena between 1936 and 2018 (Wang et al. 2021). The trend has been attributed to increased precipitation and permafrost thawing due to the temperature warming (Walvoord, Kurylyk 2016). However, the instrumental data does not provide the longterm scope of the trend. We modeled seasonal discharge from tree rings for the Yenisei River upstream at Kyzyl gauge and found a remarkable 80% upsurge in winter ‘ow (Nov-Apr) over the last 25 years, which is unprecedented in the last 214 years since 1784 (Panyushkina et al. 2021). In contrast, the annual discharge (Oct-Sept) has only a 7% increase over the last 25 years and shows normal range of variability since 1700 (Fig. 1). Water balance modeling with CRU data at the Yenisei upstream indicates a significant discrepancy between decadal variability of the gauged ‘ow and climate data after 1960 (Fig. 1). The long-term buckhound of the changes in regional hydrology is successfully assessed with tree-ring methods. The tree-ring networks in Eurasian cold climates have a great potential to reconstruct spatial pattern of the seasonal runoff and quantify the long-term impact of permafrost degradation on the hydrological regimes in Siberia. We discuss the impact of melting permafrost on the base ‘ow and enrichment of the surface and groundwater interaction at the Yenisei River basin coupled with the warming temperature and, more importantly, forest fires. Recent increase in the frequency, size, and intensity of boreal fires scale s of its impact on hydrology and permafrost in Siberia. This study demonstrates the complexity of hydrological feedback in Siberia to the Arctic Ampli:cation (AA). The adverse impacts of AA have been and will remain the greatest for the health and socioeconomic of people living in the Pan-Arctic and the geopolitics and macroeconomics of the global society.