Historical changes in rainfall patterns over the Congo basin and impacts
on runoff (1903-2010)
Abstract
The Congo basin is one of the most hydrologically active and pristine
locations with limited understanding of how precipitation changes
impacts on stream flow dynamics and variations in catchment stores.
Given that the basin is among the three prominent convective regions
that dominates global rainfall climatology during transition seasons,
historical space-time variability of rainfall (1901-2014) over the basin
in relation to river discharge is analyzed in order to understand
significant hydro-climatic shift. Based on advance multivariate
analyses, the total variability of the leading modes (annual variations)
of rainfall increased during the 1931-1960 (56.3%) and 1961-1990
(57.3%) periods compared to the 1901-1930 baseline period (51.3%). It
varied less between 1991 and 2014 (55.4%) as opposed to the two
climatological periods between 1931 and 1990. Furthermore, the total
variability in the multi-annual rainfall signals declined from 16.5% at
the start of the century (1901-1930) to 13.6% in the 1991-2014 period
while the total variability accounted for by other short-term
meteorological signals oscillated between 4.0% and 2.7% during the
entire period. Between 1995 and 2010 there seems to be a change in the
hydrological regimes of the Congo river as the cumulative departures of
rainfall and discharge were in opposite directions. The considerable
association of discharge with rainfall in catchments characterized by
strong annual and seasonal amplitudes in rainfall implies that the
wetland hydrology of the basin is largely nourished by rainfall, in
addition to possible exchange of fluxes within the Congo floodplain
wetlands. Notably, a significant proportion of changes in the dominant
rainfall patterns is still not explained by those of river discharge.
This information signals the threshold of complex hydrological processes
in the region, and perhaps suggest the influence of anthropogenic
contributions (e.g., deforestation) and strong multi-scale
ocean-atmosphere phenomena as key secondary drivers of hydrologic
variability.