Abstract
Reliable, high-resolution sea ice forecasts may help contribute to
safety of Indigenous marine mammal hunting and community travel in the
Arctic. At the same time, sea ice forecasts could also be useful
predictors of seasonal harvest success, including potential harvest
shortfalls with impacts at the community level. However, large scale
measures of sea ice concentration and ice extent are not sufficient
indicators for predicting marine mammal harvest success in Bering Strait
communities. Weekly sea ice and weather forecasts for Alaskan
communities in the Bering Strait were analyzed from the Sea Ice for
Walrus Outlook (SIWO) to identify sea ice and weather thresholds that
greatly affected Indigenous marine mammal hunting activity and access to
marine mammals during the spring harvest. The forecast of the timing for
ice-free waters around a coastal community generally aligned with local
observations. However some hunters continued to hunt by traveling longer
distances from shore to reach marine mammals. This emphasizes the
importance of maintaining coastal and marine forecasts even when coastal
areas around communities appear ice-free. It was also apparent that
while wind forecasts generally predicted the local wind conditions that
were observed, the forecasts sometimes omitted important changes in wind
direction, speed or ice movement, that occasionally resulted in ocean
and ice conditions that required local search and rescue efforts or left
hunters “stuck in the ice” overnight. The use of seasonal sea ice
forecasts from models have not yet been explored with community partners
as a potential tool to plan for upcoming subsistence hunting seasons,
although the current use of SIWO is recognized as a tool to record
hunter observations in “our words and descriptions” for current events
and for future use and analysis. An evaluation of the Sea Ice for Walrus
Outlook is being conducted, and the results of this new study will be
useful to support future development of forecast information, and
avenues for sharing of timely community observations.