Kateryna Aksonova

and 5 more

Ja Soon Shim

and 16 more

Assessing space weather modeling capability is a key element in improving existing models and developing new ones. In order to track improvement of the models and investigate impacts of forcing, from the lower atmosphere below and from the magnetosphere above, on the performance of ionosphere-thermosphere models, we expand our previous assessment for 2013 March storm event [Shim et al., 2018]. In this study, we evaluate new simulations from upgraded models (Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model version 4.1 and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) version 21.11) and from NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) version 2.2 including 8 simulations in the previous study. A simulation of NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model version 2 (TIE-GCM 2) is also included for comparison with WACCM-X. TEC and foF2 changes from quiet-time background are considered to evaluate the model performance on the storm impacts. For evaluation, we employ 4 skill scores: Correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean square error (RMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum percentage changes (Yield), and timing error(TE). It is found that the models tend to underestimate the storm-time enhancements of foF2 (F2-layer critical frequency) and TEC (Total Electron Content) and to predict foF2 and/or TEC better in the North America but worse in the Southern Hemisphere. The ensemble simulation for TEC is comparable to results from a data assimilation model (Utah State University-Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurement (USU-GAIM)) with differences in skill score less than 3% and 6% for CC and RMSE, respectively.

Shun-Rong Zhang

and 8 more

The Tonga volcano eruption at 04:14:45 UT on 2022-01-15 released enormous amounts of energy into the atmosphere, triggering very significant geophysical variations not only in the immediate proximity of the epicenter but also globally across the whole atmosphere. This study provides a global picture of ionospheric disturbances over an extended period for at least four days. We find traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) radially outbound and inbound along entire Great-Circle loci at primary speeds of ~300-350 m/s (depending on the propagation direction) and 500-1000 km horizontal wavelength for front shocks, going around the globe for three times, passing six times over the continental US in 100 hours since the eruption. TIDs following the shock fronts developed for ~8 hours with 10-30 min predominant periods in near- and far- fields. TID global propagation is consistent with the effect of Lamb waves which travel at the speed of sound. Although these oscillations are often confined to the troposphere, Lamb wave energy is known to leak into the thermosphere through channels of atmospheric resonance at acoustic and gravity wave frequencies, carrying substantial wave amplitudes at high altitudes. Prevailing Lamb waves have been reported in the literature as atmospheric responses to the gigantic Krakatoa eruption in 1883 and other geohazards. This study provides substantial first evidence of their long-duration imprints up in the global ionosphere. This study was enabled by ionospheric measurements from 5,000+ world-wide Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) ground receivers, demonstrating the broad implication of the ionosphere measurement as a sensitive detector for atmospheric waves and geophysical disturbances.

Ercha Aa

and 7 more

This paper investigates the local and global ionospheric responses to the 2022 Tonga volcano eruption, using ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) total electron content (TEC), Swarm in-situ plasma density measurements, the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) data, and ionosonde measurements. The main results are as follows: (1) A significant local ionospheric hole of more than 10 TECU depletion was observed near the epicenter ~45~min after the eruption, comprising of several cascading TEC decreases and quasi-periodic oscillations. Such a deep local plasma hole was also observed by space-borne in-situ measurements, with an estimated horizontal radius of 10-15 deg and persisted for more than 10 hours in ICON-IVM ion density profiles until local sunrise. (2) Pronounced post-volcanic evening equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) were continuously observed across the wide Asia-Oceania area after the arrival of volcano-induced waves; these caused a Ne decrease of 2-3 orders of magnitude at Swarm/ICON altitude between 450-575~km, covered wide longitudinal ranges of more than 140 deg and lasted around 12 hours. (3) Various acoustic-gravity wave modes due to volcano eruption were observed by accurate Beidou geostationary orbit (GEO) TEC, and the huge ionospheric hole was mainly caused by intense shock-acoustic impulses. TEC rate of change index revealed globally propagating ionospheric disturbances at a prevailing Lamb-wave mode of ~315 m/s; the large-scale EPBs could be seeded by acoustic-gravity resonance and coupling to less-damped Lamb waves, under a favorable condition of volcano-induced enhancement of dusktime plasma upward ExB drift and postsunset rise of the equatorial ionospheric F-layer.

Alex T Chartier

and 7 more

Ercha Aa

and 6 more

This work conducts a statistical study of the subauroral polarization stream (SAPS) feature in the North American sector using Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar measurements from 1979 to 2019, which provides a comprehensive SAPS climatology using a significantly larger database of radar observations than was used in seminal earlier works. Key features of SAPS and associated Ne/Ti/Te are investigated using a superposed epoch analysis method. The characteristics of these parameters are investigated with respect to magnetic local time, season, geomagnetic activity, solar activity, and interplanetary magnetic field orientation, respectively. The main results are as follows: (1) Conditions for SAPS are more favorable for dusk than near midnight, for winter compared to summer, for active geomagnetic periods compared to quiet time, for solar minimum compared to solar maximum, and for IMF conditions with negative By and negative Bz. (2) SAPS is usually associated with a midlatitude trough of 15–20\% depletion in the background density. The SAPS-related trough is more pronounced in the postmidnight sector and near the equinoxes. (3) Subauroral ion and electron temperatures exhibit a 3–8\% (50–120 K) enhancement in SAPS regions, which tend to have higher percentage enhancement during geomagnetically active periods and at midnight. Ion temperature enhancements are more favored during low solar activity periods, while the electron temperature enhancement remains almost constant as a function of the solar cycle. (4) The electron thermal content, Te \times Ne, in the SAPS associated region is strongly dependent on 1/Ne, with Te exhibiting a negative correlation with respect to $Ne$.
We present a new high resolution empirical model for the ionospheric total electron content (TEC). TEC data are obtained from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers with a 1 x 1 spatial resolution and 5 minute temporal resolution. The linear regression model is developed at 45N, 0E for the years 2000 - 2019 with 30 minute temporal resolution, unprecedented for typical empirical ionospheric models. The model describes dependency of TEC on solar flux, season, geomagnetic activity, and local time. Parameters describing solar and geomagnetic activity are evaluated. In particular, several options for solar flux input to the model are compared, including the traditionally used 10.7cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and formulations of the solar extreme ultraviolet flux (EUV). Ultimately, the extreme ultraviolet flux presented by the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model, integrated from 0.05 to 105.05 nm, best represents the solar flux input to the model. TEC time delays to this solar parameter on the order of several days as well as seasonal modulation of the solar flux terms are included. The Ap_3 index and its history are used to reflect the influence of geomagnetic activity. The root mean squared error of the model (relative to the mean TEC observed in the 30-min window) is 1.9539 TECu. A validation of this model for the first three months of 2020 shows excellent agreement with data. The new model shows significant improvement over the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016) when the two are compared during 2008 and 2012.