Abstract
Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made
over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these
processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth’s radiation budget
caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but
uncertainties remain large. This poster presents the outcome of an
international workshop and subsequent review paper, which quantify the
likely range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based
on multiple lines of evidence, including modelling approaches,
theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of
aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes
narrow the range of the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions
compared to the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). A robust theoretical foundation and convincing
evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in
liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of
anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction
and on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed
changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional
constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to total aerosol
radiative forcing ranges that are of similar width to the last IPCC
assessment but more clearly based on physical arguments.