Abstract
Most hydropower utilities rely on flow forecasts to manage the water
resources of their reservoir systems and to help marketers and
schedulers make efficient use of power generating resources. Flow
forecast providers and dam operators typically assess the value of flow
forecasts by assessing the skill of the forecasts in a verification
exercise. Although there are many flow forecasting approaches
available—from physics-based approaches associated with statistical
pre and post processors and data assimilation, to emerging
machine-learning based approaches—there is little consensus on how to
choose the best forecast product. Nor are there established methods for
translating forecast skill—a summary statistic amalgamating multiple
types of errors —to forecast value (benefits or avoided cost) as
perceived by a marketer or scheduler. In this work we develop such an
approach by combining a water resources management model with a power
grid model. Flow forecasts are developed at 85 locations for a varying
range of skills, from perfect, to persistent and in-between. Using
reservoir and power grid simulations over the Western U.S., we propagate
flow forecasts through the power grid model, mapping flow forecast skill
to regional hydropower revenues, production costs and carbon emissions.
We develop a deeper understanding of the influence of regional and
seasonal differences in markets and hydrologic dynamics on forecast
value. We discuss future research directions to integrate hydrologic
forecasts into decision-making at the utility and wider system scale.