In May 2024, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) resulted in the first ’severe’ (G4-level) geomagnetic storm watch in nearly 20 years. This event evolved into a significant space weather event, including an ’extreme’ (G5) geomagnetic storm, moderate (S2) solar radiation storm, and strong (R3) radio blackout. The widespread visibility of auroras at unusually low latitudes attracted global media attention. Using extreme value theory (EVT), this study estimates the return periods for the May 2024 storm based on several geomagnetic indices. The results indicate that while the storm’s magnitude was a 1-in-12.5-year event, its duration was a 1-in-41-year event. This discrepancy highlights the storm’s unusual longevity compared to its intensity. Updated EVT analyses incorporating recent data refine these return period estimates, providing critical insights into the frequency of such extreme space weather events.

This study presents an analysis of sporadic-E (Es) structures within WACCM-X (the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension), including electrodynamical transport of metallic ions. A set of selection criteria have been developed to identify Es layers in WACCM-X output based on the total metal ion density in each model grid box. These criteria are used to create a climatology of Es, which is compared to Es occurrence rates derived from FORMOSAT/COSMIC-1 (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio-occultation measurements. The novel identification algorithm analyses two-week time slices between altitudes of 90-150km, with Es layer events identified where the three selection criteria are met. Distinct seasonal distributions in Es occurrence were observed that are consistent with previous studies, with peaks during summer and reduced frequencies during winter, alignment of Es with geomagnetic contours, and layers descending in altitude as a function of local time. While discrepancies exist between WACCM-X and COSMIC data (WACCM-X occurrence rates are a factor of ~2 lower than COSMIC-derived occurrence rates at mid-latitudes), highlighting the ongoing challenges in modelling Es layers, this study enhances the modelling capabilities of sporadic Es and deepens our understanding of their formation; it establishes a basis for their enhanced integration into global climate models and facilitates further investigation of Es behaviour under different atmospheric conditions, paving the way to improved prediction of the occurrence of Es.

A document by Gareth Dorrian. Click on the document to view its contents.

A document by Benjamin Reid. Click on the document to view its contents.

The lunar ionosphere is a ~100 km thick layer of electrically charged plasma surrounding the moon. Despite knowledge of its existence for decades, the structure and dynamics of the lunar plasma remain a mystery due to lack of consistent observational capacity. An enhanced observational picture of the lunar ionosphere and improved understanding of its formation/loss mechanisms is critical for understanding the lunar environment as a whole and assessing potential safety and economic hazards associated with lunar exploration and habitation. To address the high priority need for observations of the electrically charged constituents near the lunar surface, we introduce a concept study for the Radio Instrument Package for Lunar Ionospheric Observation (RIPLIO). RIPLIO would consist of a multi-CubeSat constellation (at least two satellites) in lunar orbit for the purpose of conducting “crosslink” radio occultation measurements of the lunar ionosphere, with at least one satellite carrying a very high frequency (VHF) transmitter broadcasting at multiple frequencies, and at least one satellite flying a broadband receiver to monitor transmitting satellites. Radio occultations intermittently occur when satellite-to-satellite signals cross through the lunar ionosphere, and the resulting phase perturbations of VHF signals may be analyzed to infer the ionosphere electron content and high- resolution vertical electron density profiles. As demonstrated in this study, RIPLIO would provide a novel means for lunar observation, with the potential to provide long-term, high-resolution observations of the lunar ionosphere with unprecedented pan-lunar detail.

The high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10-11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150km to 300km, reaching levels of up to 630km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2-layer on the 11th, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the 11th.

Prior to use in operational systems, it is essential to validate ionospheric models in a manner relevant to their intended application to ensure satisfactory performance. For Over-the-Horizon radars (OTHR) operating in the high-frequency (HF) band (3-30 MHz), the problem of model validation is severe when used in Coordinate Registration (CR) and Frequency Management Systems (FMS). It is imperative that the full error characteristics of models is well understood in these applications due to the critical relationship they impose on system performance. To better understand model performance in the context of OTHR, we introduce an ionospheric model validation technique using the oblique ground backscatter measurements in soundings from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). Analysis is performed in terms of the F-region leading edge (LE) errors and assessment of range-elevation distributions using calibrated interferometer data. This technique is demonstrated by validating the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2016 for January and June in both 2014 and 2018. LE RMS errors of 100-400 km and 400-800 km are observed for winter and summer months, respectively. Evening errors regularly exceeding 1,000 km across all months are identified. Ionosonde driven corrections to the IRI-2016 peak parameters provide improvements of 200-800 km to the LE, with the greatest improvements observed during the nighttime. Diagnostics of echo distributions indicate consistent underestimates in model NmF2 during the daytime hours of June 2014 due to offsets of -8° being observed in modelled elevation angles at 18:00 and 21:00 UT.

Radio interferometers used to make astronomical observations, such as the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR), experience distortions imposed upon the received signal due to the ionosphere as well as those from instrumental errors. Calibration using a well-characterised radio source can be used to mitigate these effects and produce more accurate images of astronomical sources, and the calibration process provides measurements of ionospheric conditions over a wide range of length scales. The basic ionospheric measurement this provides is differential Total Electron Content (TEC, the integral of electron density along the line of sight). Differential TEC measurements made using LOFAR have a precision of <1 mTECu and therefore enable investigation of ionospheric disturbances which may be undetectable to many other methods. We demonstrate an approach to identify ionospheric waves from these data using a wavelet transform and a simple plane wave model. The noise spectra are robustly characterised to provide uncertainty estimates for the fitted parameters. An example is shown in which this method identifies a wave with an amplitude an order of magnitude below those reported using GNSS TEC measurements. Artificially generated data are used to test the accuracy of the method and establish the range of wavelengths which can be detected using this method with LOFAR data. This technique will enable the use of a large and mostly unexplored dataset to study travelling ionospheric disturbances over Europe.

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is a critical operational space weather index. However, without a clear backup, any interruption to the service can result in substantial errors in model outputs. In this paper we show the impact of one such outage in March 2022 and present a number of alternative solutions for any future outages. The approach resulting in the smallest reconstruction error of F10.7 uses the solar radio flux observations at alternative wavelengths (the best giving a percentage error of 3.1%). Alternatively, use of Sunspot Number, a regular, robust alternative observation, results in a mean percentage error of 8.2% and is also a reliable fallback solution. Additionally, analysis of the error on the use of the conversion between the 12-month rolling sunspot number (R12) and its conversion to F10.7 as used by the IRI is included.

Ground scatter (GS) echoes in Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) observations have been always expected to occur under high-enough electron density in the ionosphere providing sufficient bending of HF radio wave paths toward the ground. In this study we provide direct evidence statistically supporting this notion by comparing the GS occurrence rate for the Rankin Inlet SuperDARN radar and the F region peak electron density NmF2 measured at Resolute Bay by the CADI ionosonde and incoherent scatter radars RISR-N/C. We show that the occurrence rate increases with NmF2 roughly linearly up to about ~4·1011 m-3, and the trend saturates at larger NmF2. One expected consequence of this relationship is correlation in seasonal and solar cycle variations of the GS echo occurrence rate and NmF2. GS occurrence rates for a number of SuperDARN radars at middle latitudes, in the auroral zone and in the polar cap are considered separately for daytime and nighttime. The data indicate that the daytime occurrence rates are maximized in winter and nighttime occurrence rates are maximized in summer for middle latitude and auroral zone radars in the Northern Hemisphere, consistent with the Winter Anomaly (WA) phenomenon. The effect is most evident in the North American and Japanize sectors, and the quality of WA signatures deteriorates in the European and, especially, in the Australian sectors. The effect does not exist in the South American sector and in the polar caps of both hemispheres.

The Empirical-Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Model (E-CHAIM) has been shown to reasonably reproduce important general features of the electron density distribution in the high-latitude ionosphere such as solar cycle and seasonal variations of the F layer peak and the location of the ionospheric trough. The utility of the model for practical applications, such as predictions of HF radio wave propagation, is less clear. In this study, we consider ground-scatter (GS) data for three SuperDARN radars at various latitudes to compare the observed skip distance against ray tracings based on E-CHAIM predictions. Monthly-averaged GS band locations in 2010-2018 are computed for every half-hour of the day, and are correlated with modelled skip distances. We show that the agreement is better during summer months and we discuss the quality of predictions at various latitudes.

The large scale morphology and finer sub-structure within a slowly propagating traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID) are studied using wide band trans-ionospheric radio observations with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR: van Haarlem, et al., 2013). The observations were made under geomagnetically quiet conditions, between 0400-0800 UT on 7 January 2019, over the UK. In combination with ionograms and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Total Electron Content (TEC) anomaly data we estimate the TID velocity to ~65ms-1, in a NorthWesterly direction. Clearly defined substructures with oscillation periods of ~300 seconds were identified within the LOFAR observations of the TID, corresponding to scale sizes of ~ 20 km. At the geometries and observing wavelengths involved, the Fresnel scale is between 3-4 km, hence these substructures contribute significant refractive scattering to the received LOFAR signal. The refractive scattering is strongly coherent across the LOFAR bandwidth used here (25-64 MHz). The size of these structures distinguishes them from previously identified ionospheric scintillation with LOFAR in Fallows et al., 2020 where the scale sizes of the plasma structure varied from ~500 m – 5 km.