Conclusions
Ecosystem spatial pattern modelling – sometime called ecosystem
distribution modelling – is in early stages of maturity (Naas et al
2024), and there are few evaluations of suitable approaches. This is
expected to change. While species distribution models greatly outnumber
models for other levels of biodiversity (Zurell et al. 2022), interest
in community and ecosystem spatial modelling is increasing rapidly
(Geary et al. 2020, Simpkins et al. 2022). Much of the immediate demand
has come from conservation scientists tasked with developing models to
identify ecosystems for protection and restoration. This has prompted
development of standardized classifications and mapping tools, including
those for the red list of ecosystems (Keith et al. 2022, Murray et al.
2022). Yet very few countries presently have suitable models for mapping
ecosystems (Xiao et al. 2024) and available models emphasize vegetation
proxies. Our framework offers an alternative approach. Our joint
emphasis on biotic and abiotic response variables from field surveys
contrasts with other approaches. Biotic and abiotic properties are the
building blocks of ecosystems (Holling 1992). Predicting regular shifts
in groups of these properties is essential for resolving and
understanding ecosystem pattern (Levin 1998, Levin et al. 2001). Such
patterns express ecosystem assembly outcomes, including the factors
shaping lower levels of ecological organization (Keith et al. 2022).
Overall, the framework we present is intended to help advance general
understanding of ecosystem patterns, which remain poorly understood
(Loreau 2020).