Abstract
Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables,
using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to
improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is
particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified
as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in
the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and
hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of
precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal
temperature range ($^{\circ}$C) for the periods
1970-1999 and 2070-2099 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange
Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the
CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data.
Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective
scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario
were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of
the climate change in the region and also suggests an early onset of the
rainy season and future drying conditions.