A qualitative assessment of alternative eradication strategies for
African swine fever in the Dominican Republic
Abstract
Since the first outbreak was identified in July 2021, the African swine
fever (ASF) epidemic in pigs in the Dominican Republic (DR) has
generated much discourse on various measures for its control. Strategies
range from complete depopulation of the swine population, as was done in
1978, to a system of passive surveillance with endemicity, with many
in-between. Currently, ASF-decision makers need an evaluation of these
potential strategies that incorporates both private and public
perspectives. To achieve this goal, we used strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis to evaluate three different
theoretical ASF control scenarios with the aim of contributing to the
discussion of different alternatives to mitigate the epidemic’s impact.
These included total depopulation of all pigs in the DR, partial
depopulation, and continuation of current control measures. Relevant
experts from the DR private swine industry sector were identified
through “snowball sampling” techniques. First, relevant stakeholders
within the DR private swine industry were asked to identify individuals
that they would consider experts for ASF in the DR. Experts identified
through this process were contacted to participate. Of these, 5 experts
completed the SWOT questionnaire for each of the scenarios, with
additional questions considering aspects of financial cost, social
impact, feasibility, animal welfare, and regional policy. The responses
were summarized for an overall evaluation of each scenario and presented
to the full group of experts initially nominated for final review and
later to representatives of the DR government for feedback. The SWOT
analysis highlighted that although there are certain benefits associated
with each of the proposed strategies, there are also important drawbacks
and disadvantages for all. This may explain in part why 6 months after
the epidemic was first reported, there are still uncertainty about the
most effective control strategy to be implemented. This analysis is a
tool for discussions at the private-public interface and facilitate
cooperation between the DR government and swine industry. Ultimately,
this work supports the development of strategies that will reduce ASF
burden in the DR in a way suitable for all relevant stakeholders.