Trait-Mediated Population Shifts in Fish Under Warming: Insights from a
Thermal Discharge Site near a Nuclear Power Plant
Abstract
Rapid warming has considerably impacted fish populations, with responses
influenced by traits related to migration and metabolism. However,
previous studies on the effects of warming often struggled to isolate
warming-specific impacts due to challenges in directly comparing
affected and unaffected areas. Investigating the effects of rapid
warming caused by nuclear power plants provides a unique and valuable
opportunity to address this limitation. In this study, we focused on
fish populations at two coastal sites in Japan: one affected by thermal
discharge from a nuclear power plant, and the other serving as a control
site. We compared fish populations between these two sites. We analyzed
changes in abundance and body size, identifying traits that influenced
these responses. The results revealed that 18% of species showed
significant changes in abundance, while 40% exhibited significant
changes in body size. Using a generalized linear regression model, we
found that traits such as migratory behavior, trophic level, latitudinal
distribution, and average body size were associated with these changes.
Migratory and tropical species, in particular, were more likely to
increase in both abundance and body size under warming conditions. These
results suggest that warming enabled migratory and tropical species to
overwinter and establish populations at the warming site. To better
understand changes in fish communities driven by global warming along
the Japanese coast, monitoring a broad range of species, as demonstrated
in this study, would be highly effective. Additionally, focusing on
traits related to migration and metabolism can help identify species
particularly vulnerable to warming.