ENSO sentinels in the Americas’ humid tropics: We need combined
hydrometric and isotopic monitoring for improved El Niño and La Niña
impact prediction
Abstract
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, originating in the
tropical Pacific region, is an interannual climate variability driven by
sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure changes that affect
weather patterns globally. In Mesoamerica, ENSO can cause significant
changes in rainfall patterns with major impacts on water resources. This
commentary presents results from a nearly 10-yr hydrometric and tracer
monitoring network across north-central Costa Rica, a region known as a
headwater-dependent system. This monitoring system has recorded
different El Niño and La Niña events, as well as the direct/indirect
effects of several hurricane and tropical storm passages. Our results
show that ENSO exerts a significant but predictable impact on rainfall
anomalies, groundwater recharge, and spring discharge, as evidenced by
second-order water isotope parameters (e.g., line conditioned-excess or
LC-excess). The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is correlated with a reduction
in mean annual and cold front rainfall across the headwaters of
north-central Costa Rica. During El Niño conditions, rainfall is
substantially reduced (by up to 69.2%) during the critical cold fronts
period, subsequently limiting groundwater recharge and promoting an
early onset of baseflow conditions. In contrast, La Niña is associated
with increased rainfall and groundwater recharge (by up to 94.7% during
active cold front periods). During La Niña, the long-term mean spring
discharge (39 Ls -1) is exceeded 63-80% of the time,
whereas, during El Niño, the exceedance time ranges between 26% and
44%. These stark shifts in regional hydroclimatic variability are
imprinted on the hydrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions of meteoric
waters. Drier conditions favored lower LC-excess in rainfall (-17.3‰)
and spring water (-6.5‰), whereas wetter conditions resulted in greater
values (rainfall=+17.5‰; spring water=+10.7‰). The lower and higher
LC-excess values in rainfall corresponded to the very strong 2014-16 El
Niño and 2018 La Niña, respectively. During the recent triple-dip
2021-23 La Niña, LC-excess exhibited a significant and consistently
increasing trend. These findings highlight the importance of combining
hydrometric, synoptic, and isotopic monitoring as ENSO sentinels to
advance our current understanding of ENSO impacts on hydrological
systems across the humid Tropics. Such information is critical to
constraining 21 st century projections of future water
stress across this fragile region.