Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists in Asthma Exacerbations: an
Application of High-dimensional Iterative Causal Forest to Identify
Subgroups
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists (GLP1RA)
may reduce asthma exacerbation (AE) risk, but it is unclear which
populations benefit most. Recent pharmacoepidemiologic studies have
employed iterative causal forest (iCF), a machine learning (ML)
algorithm to identify subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects.
While iCF do not rely on prior knowledge of treatment-variable
interactions, it may be constrained by missing or misdefined variables
in pharmacepidemiology studies. METHODS: We applied the
high-dimensional iterative causal forest (hdiCF), a causal ML algorithm
that does not reply on predefined variables, to MarketScan 2016-2020
claims data to identify populations with asthma that might benefit most
from GLP1RA in reducing AE risk. We built a GLP1RA vs sulfonylurea
new-user cohort with ≥ 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient asthma encounters,
excluding patients with non-asthma indications for systemic steroids.
Using 599 high-dimensional features from inpatient/outpatient services
and pharmacy claims, patients were followed for 6 months from their
second prescription. The outcome was acute AE (hospital admission or
emergency department visit for asthma). RESULTS: In the overall
population, GLP1RA decreased AE risk relative to sulfonylurea: aRD
-1.4% (-2.0%, -0.8%). hdiCF identified 3 subgroups based on systemic
steroid prescription fills (0, 1, and ≥2): patients with ≥2 systemic
steroid prescriptions (GLP1RA: 34 events/1367 individuals; sulfonylurea:
53/1013) benefited most from GLP1RA: aRD -3.8% (-5.3%, -2.2%).
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates how automated feature
identification can pinpoint clinically relevant subgroups with varying
treatment effects. Systemic steroid use, as a proxy for severe asthma,
may guide personalized predictions of GLP1RA’s short-term benefits on
acute AE.