Abstract
Predicting range expansion dynamics is challenging for fundamental and
applied research, especially if ecological and evolutionary processes
occur over similar time scales. We assessed the predictability of
evolutionary outcomes in laboratory range expansions of the ciliate
Paramecium caudatum. Experimental range core and front treatments were
recreated in a predictive mathematical model, parametrized with
dispersal and growth data of the 20 founder strains. Short-term
evolution from standing genetic variation was driven by selection for
dispersal at the front and general selection for growth rate in all
treatments. The quantitative match between predicted and observed trait
changes was mirrored by genetic divergence between treatments, with the
repeated fixation of strains identified as most likely winners in our
model. Long-term evolution in range front lines produced a dispersal
syndrome (competition - colonisation trade-off). Our work suggests that
short-term evolution at range fronts can follow predictable
trajectories, based on few key parameters.