Abstract
Although efforts to estimate Ne, Nc, and their ratio in wild populations
are expanding, few empirical studies investigate interannual changes in
these parameters. Hence, we do not know how representative many
estimates may be. Answering this question requires studies of long-term
population dynamics. We non-lethally sampled N=5400 brook trout
(Salvelinus fontinalis) from seven populations during 6 consecutive
years (2014-2019) and genotyped them at 33 microsatellites to examine
variation in Ne, Nc and their ratio. Nc was estimated by Mark-Recapture
(Nc(MR)) (2014-2018) as well as by Close-Kin-Mark-Recapture (Nc(CKMR))
(2015-2017). Within populations, annual variation in Ne (max/min Ne)
ranged from 1.6-fold to 58-fold. Over all 7 populations, median annual
variation in Ne was 5-fold. These results reflect important interannual
changes in reproductive success variance. Within population Nc(MR)
varied by a median of 2.7. Thus, Ne varied nearly twice as much as did
Nc(MR) . Our results suggest that, at least in small populations, any
single annual estimate of Ne is unlikely to be representative of
long-term dynamics. At least 3-4 annual estimates may be required for an
estimate of contemporary Ne to be representative. For five of the seven
populations, Nc(MR) was indistinguishable from Nc(CKMR). The two
populations with discordant estimates exhibited the largest annual Ne
variation (58-fold and 35.4-fold). These results suggest sampling effort
in these two streams may have been insufficient to capture the genetic
diversity of the entire population. Our study demonstrates how knowledge
of temporal variation in Ne can be used to identify potential biases in
Nc(CKMR).