Predicting parasite range expansion
Using computed monthly mean temperatures extracted from global climate projections (2021-2040) and our field data collected from 2014-2015, we compared the EIP for avian as well as the human malaria parasites across the four Himalayan sites (Figure 5). The main point was that for virtually all parasites, climate change scenarios lead to an expansion of the transmission period in which parasite survival is guaranteed as well as the lower EIP. The only exception was the low elevation site, Mandal (1800m) where a decrease in average temperature is predicted leading to an increase in EIP. The effects of climate change are known to be inhomogeneous, in general, even as there is a secular increase in overall mean temperatures. This counterexample to the general trend supports that observation.