Phytoplankton primary production is a crucial component of Arctic Ocean (AO) biogeochemistry, playing a pivotal role in the carbon cycling by supporting higher trophic levels and removing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The advent of satellite observations measuring chlorophyll a concentration (Chl_ a) has yielded unprecedented insights into the distribution of AO phytoplankton, enhancing our ability to assess oceanic productivity. However, the optical properties of AO waters differ significantly from those of lower‐latitude waters, and standard Chl_a algorithms perform poorly in the AO. In particular, Chl_a retrievals are challenged by interferences from other marine constituents including higher pigment packaging and higher proportion of light absorption by colored dissolved organic matter. To derive phytoplankton-originating signature as well as mitigate those effects, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) emerges as a valuable tool for acquiring physiological insights into the direct photosynthetic processes in the AO. In this study, we leverage satellite-based SIF measurements to assess their correlation with a set of predictive factors influencing phytoplankton photosynthesis. We extend the temporal coverage of AO SIF data to cover the period 2004 - 2020. This novel dataset offers a pathway to monitor the physiological interactions of phytoplankton with changes in climate, promising to significantly improve our understanding of the Arctic water’s productivity. The application of this data is expected to provide insights into how phytoplankton respond to shifts in environmental changes, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of their role in High-Latitude Northern Oceans ecosystems.

While the preindustrial ocean was assumed to be in equilibrium with the atmosphere, the modern ocean is a carbon sink, resulting from natural variability and anthropogenic perturbations, such as fossil fuel emissions and changes in riverine exports over the past two centuries. Here we use a suite of sensitivity experiments based on the ECCO-Darwin global-ocean biogeochemistry model to evaluate the response of air-sea CO2 flux and carbon cycling to present-day lateral fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and silica. We generate a daily export product by combining point-source freshwater discharge from JRA55-do with the Global NEWS 2 watershed model, accounting for lateral fluxes from 5171 watersheds worldwide. From 2000 to 2019, carbon exports increase CO2 outgassing by 0.22 Pg C yr-1 via the solubility pump, while nitrogen exports increase the ocean sink by 0.17 Pg C yr-1 due to phytoplankton fertilization. On regional scales, exports to the Tropical Atlantic and Arctic Ocean are dominated by organic carbon, which originates from terrestrial vegetation and peats and increases CO2 outgassing (+10 and +20%, respectively). In contrast, Southeast Asia is dominated by nitrogen from anthropogenic sources, such as agriculture and pollution, leading to increased CO2 uptake (+7%). Our results demonstrate that the magnitude and composition of riverine exports, which are determined in part from upstream watersheds and anthropogenic perturbations, substantially impact present-day regional-to-global-ocean carbon cycling. Ultimately, this work stresses that lateral fluxes must be included in ocean biogeochemistry and Earth System Models to better constrain the transport of carbon, nutrients, and metals across the land-ocean-aquatic-continuum.

The expansion of shrubs into the Arctic tundra fundamentally modifies land-atmosphere interactions. However, it remains unclear how shrub distribution and expansion differ across key species due to challenges with discriminating tundra plant species at regional scales. Here, we combined multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing and in situ trait measurements to elucidate the distribution patterns and primary controls of two representative deciduous-tall-shrub (DTS) genera, Alnus and Salix, in low-Arctic tundra. We show that topographic features were a primary control on DTSs, creating heterogeneous, but predictable distributions of Alnus and Salix fractional cover (fCover). Alnus was sensitive to elevation and slope and was found on hilly uplands (>10°) within a specific elevational band (200 - 400 m above sea level [MSL]). In contrast, Salix occurred at lower elevations (50 - 300 m MSL) on gentler slopes (3-10°) and required adequate soil moisture associated with its profligate water use. We also show that niche differentiation between Alnus and Salix changed with patch size, where larger patches were more specialized in resource requirements than individual plants of Alnus and Salix. To understand what constrains the growth of DTSs at locations with low fCover, we developed environmental limiting factor models, which showed that topography limits the upper bound of Alnus and Salix fCover in 69.2% and 48.7% of the landscape, respectively. These findings highlight a critical need to better understand and represent topography-controlled processes and functional traits in regulating shrub distribution, as well as a need for more detailed species classification to predict shrubification in the Arctic.

Since 2007, the National Academy for Sciences Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) has recommended priorities for Earth Science research and investment every ten years. The Decadal Survey balances the continuation of essential climate variable time series against unmet measurement needs and new Earth Observations made possible by technological breakthroughs. The next survey (2027-2028, DS28) must anticipate the observational needs of the 2030s-2040s, a world increasingly dominated by climate extremes and a rapidly changing Earth system. Here, we identify the critical Earth Observation needs for a hotter, more extreme world where expect challenges in maintaining a safe operating space.

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, resulting in widespread ground thaw and state changes. Due to the rapid rate and large scale of ecosystem shifts, identifying and understanding Arctic boreal zone changes and feedbacks requires frequent observations across multiple scales. The last decade has witnessed significant increases in the number and coverage of in-situ, airborne, and satellite observations. However, additional resolution, coverage, and sustained, long-term time series data records are urgently required to characterize and understand the considerable heterogeneity of Northern permafrost environments. Here, we review the physical and technical gaps that limit the ability to detect rapid state changes and tipping points in permafrost ecosystems. Understanding and accurately forecasting changes to the Arctic is an essential component of managing climate change in this rapidly transforming system.

As the planet approaches local and global exceedance of the 1.5o C stabilization target, damages from climate change, mostly due to extremes, are growing, far faster than projected. At the same time, assessment models have projected high costs of mitigation, but the cost of energy is dropping faster than projected. Climate policy has assumed that damage costs are manageable while decarbonization is expensive. Both these assumptions are wrong. Damage costs are rising rapidly and green energy costs are dropping quickly. potentially leading to a tipping point in human behavior: scientists need to explore options better aligned with this emerging reality.

Chemical and biological composition of surface materials and physical structure and arrangement of those materials determine the intrinsic reflectance of Earth’s land surface. The apparent reflectance—as measured by a spaceborne or airborne sensor that has been corrected for atmospheric attenuation—depends also on topography, surface roughness, and the atmosphere. Especially in Earth’s mountains, estimating properties of scientific interest from remotely sensed data requires compensation for topography. Doing so requires information from digital elevation models (DEMs). Available DEMs with global coverage are derived from spaceborne interferometric radar and stereo-photogrammetry at ~30 m spatial resolution. Locally or regionally, lidar altimetry, interferometric radar, or stereo-photogrammetry produces DEMs with finer resolutions. Characterization of their quality typically expresses the root-mean-square (RMS) error of the elevation, but the accuracy of remotely sensed retrievals is sensitive to uncertainties in topographic properties that affect incoming and reflected radiation and that are inadequately represented by the RMS error of the elevation. The most essential variables are the cosine of the local solar illumination angle on a slope, the shadows cast by neighboring terrain, and the view factor, the fraction of the overlying hemisphere open to the sky. Comparison of global DEMs with locally available fine-scale DEMs shows that calculations with the global products consistently underestimate the cosine of the solar angle and underrepresent shadows. Analyzing imagery of Earth’s mountains from current and future spaceborne missions requires addressing the uncertainty introduced by errors in DEMs on algorithms that analyze remotely sensed data to produce information about Earth’s surface.

Top-down estimates of CO2 fluxes are typically constrained by either surface-based or space-based CO2 observations. Both of these measurement types have spatial and temporal gaps in observational coverage that can lead to biases in inferred fluxes. Assimilating both surface-based and space-based measurements concurrently in a flux inversion framework improves observational coverage and reduces sampling biases. This study examines the consistency of flux constraints provided by these different observations and the potential to combine them by performing a series of six-year (2010–2015) CO2 flux inversions. Flux inversions are performed assimilating surface-based measurements from the in situ and flask network, measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and space-based measurements from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), or all three datasets combined. Combining the datasets results in more precise flux estimates for sub-continental regions relative to any of the datasets alone. Combining the datasets also improves the accuracy of the posterior fluxes, based on reduced root-mean-square differences between posterior-flux-simulated CO2 and aircraft-based CO2 over midlatitude regions (0.35–0.50~ppm) in comparison to GOSAT (0.39–0.57~ppm), TCCON (0.52–0.63~ppm), or in situ and flask measurements (0.45–0.53~ppm) alone. These results suggest that surface-based and GOSAT measurements give complementary constraints on CO2 fluxes in the northern extratropics and can be combined in flux inversions to improve observational coverage. This stands in contrast with many earlier attempts to combine these datasets and suggests that improvements in the NASA Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) retrieval algorithm have significantly improved the consistency of space-based and surface-based flux constraints.

Observations of Planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multi-spectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs. First, and perhaps, foremost, it will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change . It will characterize the diversity of plant life by resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire, observing pre-fire risk, fire behavior and post-fire recovery. It will inform responses to hazards and disasters guiding responses to a wide range of events, including oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal and spectral resolution, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. The Research and Applications team examined available algorithms, calibration and validation and societal applications and used end-to-end modeling to assess uncertainty. The team also identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the frequency of revisit through data sharing, adding value for all partners. Analysis of the science, applications, architecture and partnerships led to a clear measurement strategy and a well-defined observing system architecture.

Methane (CH4) emissions from climate-sensitive ecosystems within the northern permafrost region represent a large but highly uncertain source, with current estimates spanning a factor of seven (11 – 75 Tg CH4 yr-1). Accelerating permafrost thaw threatens significant increases in pan-Arctic CH4 emissions, amplifying the permafrost carbon feedback. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy with meter-scale spatial resolution and broad coverage to identify a previously undiscovered CH4 hotspot adjacent to an intensively studied thermokarst lake in interior Alaska. Hotspot emissions were confined to < 1% of the 10 ha study area. Ground-based chamber measurements confirmed average daily fluxes of 1,170 mg CH4 m-2 d-1, with extreme daily maxima up to 24,200 mg CH4 m-2 d-1. Ground-based geophysics measurements revealed thawed permafrost at and directly beneath the CH4 hotspot, extending to a depth of ~15 m, indicating that the intense CH4 emissions likely originated from recently thawed permafrost. Emissions from the hotspot accounted for ~40% of total diffusive CH4 emissions from the entire study area. Combining these results with hotspot statistics from our 70,000 km2 airborne survey across Alaska and northwestern Canada, we estimate that terrestrial thermokarst hotspots currently emit 1.1 (0.1 – 5.2) Tg CH4 yr-1, or roughly 4% of the annual pan-Arctic wetland budget from just 0.01% of the northern permafrost land area. Our results suggest that significant proportions of pan-Arctic CH4 emissions originate from disproportionately small areas of previously undetermined thermokarst emissions hotspots, and that pan-Arctic CH4 emissions may increase non-linearly as thermokarst processes increase under a warming climate.

Imaging spectroscopy is a remote-sensing technique that retrieves reflectances across visible to shortwave infrared wavelengths at high spectral resolution (<10 nm). Spectroscopic reflectance data provide novel information on the properties of the Earth’s terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Until recently, imaging spectroscopy missions were limited spatially and temporally using airborne instruments, such as the Next Generation Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG), providing the main source of observations. Here, we present a land-surface modeling framework to help support end-to-end traceability of emerging imaging spectroscopy spaceborne missions. The LPJ-wsl dynamic global vegetation model is coupled with the canopy radiative transfer model, PROSAIL, to generate global, gridded, daily visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) spectra. LPJ-wsl variables are cross-walked to meet required PROSAIL parameters, which include leaf structure, Chlorophyll a+b, brown pigment, equivalent water thickness, and dry matter content. Simulated spectra are compared to a boreal forest site, a temperate forest, managed grassland, and a tropical forest site using reflectance data from canopy imagers mounted on towers and from air and spaceborne platforms. We find that canopy nitrogen and leaf-area index are the most uncertain variables in translating LPJ-wsl to PROSAIL parameters but at first order, LPJ-PROSAIL successfully simulates surface reflectance dynamics. Future work will optimize functional relationships required for improving PROSAIL parameters and include the development of the LPJ-model to represent improvements in leaf water content and canopy nitrogen. The LPJ-PROSAIL model can support missions such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) and higher-level modeled products.

High-resolution space-based spectral imaging of the Earth’s surface delivers critical information for monitoring changes in the Earth system as well as resource management and utilization. Orbiting spectrometers are built according to multiple design parameters, including ground sampling distance (GSD), spectral resolution, temporal resolution, and signal-to-noise. The different applications drive divergent instrument designs, so optimization for wide-reaching missions is complex. The Surface Biology and Geology component of NASA’s Earth System Observatory addresses science questions and meets applications needs across diverse fields, including terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, natural disasters, and the cryosphere. The algorithms required to generate the geophysical variables from the observed spectral imagery each have their own inherent dependencies and sensitivities, and weighting these objectively is challenging. Here, we introduce intrinsic dimensionality (ID), a measure of information content, as an applications-agnostic, data-driven metric to quantify performance sensitivity to various design parameters. ID is computed through the analysis of the eigenvalues of the image covariance matrix, and can be thought of as the number of significant principal components. This metric is extremely powerful for quantifying the information content in high-dimensional data, such as spectrally resolved radiances and their changes over space and time. We find that the intrinsic dimensionality decreases for coarser GSD, decreased spectral resolution and range, less frequent acquisitions, and lower signal-to-noise levels. This decrease in information content has implications for all derived products. Intrinsic dimensionality is simple to compute, providing a single quantitative standard to evaluate combinations of design parameters, irrespective of higher-level algorithms, products, applications, or disciplines.