Demographic and interaction lags govern the pace and outcome of plant
community responses to 21st century climate change
- Sebastian Block,
- Marc-Jacques Maechler,
- Jake Alexander,
- Loïc Pellissier,
- Jonathan Levine
Sebastian Block
Princeton University
Corresponding Author:seblun@gmail.com
Author ProfileMarc-Jacques Maechler
ETH Zurich Institute of Integrative Biology
Author ProfileAbstract
Forecasting the trajectories of species assemblages in response to
ongoing climate change requires quantifying the time lags in the
demographic and ecological processes through which climate impacts
species' abundances. Since experimental climate manipulations are
typically abrupt, the observed species responses may not match their
responses to gradual climate change. We addressed this problem by
transplanting alpine grassland turfs to lower elevations, recording
species' demographic responses to climate and competition, and using
these data to parameterize community dynamics models forced by scenarios
of gradual climate change. We found that shifts in community structure
following an abrupt climate manipulation were not simply accelerated
versions of shifts expected under gradual warming, especially when they
missed the rise of species benefiting from moderate warming. Time lags
in demography and species interactions controlled the pace and
trajectory of changing species' abundances under simulated 21st century
climate change, and thereby prevented immediate diversity loss.24 Jan 2022Submitted to Ecology Letters 25 Jan 2022Submission Checks Completed
25 Jan 2022Assigned to Editor
27 Jan 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
03 Mar 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
04 Mar 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
28 Mar 20221st Revision Received
29 Mar 2022Submission Checks Completed
29 Mar 2022Assigned to Editor
06 Apr 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
02 May 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
06 May 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
12 May 20222nd Revision Received
13 May 2022Submission Checks Completed
13 May 2022Assigned to Editor
23 May 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
23 May 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
24 Jun 20223rd Revision Received
27 Jun 2022Submission Checks Completed
27 Jun 2022Assigned to Editor
03 Jul 2022Editorial Decision: Accept