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\title{Electrical Flexibility Forecasting and Assessment for Heat-Pump-Based District Heating Systems}



\author[1]{Roberto Rocca}%
\author[2]{Lorena Elorza-Uriarte}%
\author[3]{Arjen Schamhart}%
\author[4]{Gerwin Verschuur}%
\author[2]{David Miguel Rivas-Ascaso}%
\affil[1]{https://orcid.org, CIRCE Mixed Research Institute (University of Zaragoza, CIRCE Technology Centre) Zaragoza}%
\affil[2]{Electrical Systems Department CIRCE Technology Centre Zaragoza, https://orcid.org}%
\affil[3]{Energie Samen Rivierenland Culemborg}%
\affil[4]{Thermo Bello BV}%


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  \date{May 01, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
Nowadays, simple and cost-effective solutions to extract flexibility
from any possible energy asset are being heavily investigated, along
with optimal strategies to offer flexibility in different markets. In
this context, this work proposes an Electrical Flexibility Forecasting
Engine (EFFE) conceived for district heating systems based on
centralised heat pumps. The idea is implemented in the case study of
Culemborg (ND), demo site of the H2020-ACCEPT project. Here, the engine
is run in a typical winter day to forecast and asses both upwards and
downwards flexibility, along with the minimum economically viable bids
for a local market.%
\end{abstract}%



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