Evaluation of the economic impact of classical and African swine fever
epidemics using OutCosT, a new spreadsheet-based tool
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are two major
transboundary animal diseases of swine with important socioeconomic
consequences at farm, subnational and national level. The objective of
this study was to evaluate the direct cost of outbreaks and their
control at country/regional level in four countries: namely CSF in
Colombia in 2015-2016, the retrospective cost of ASF in the Philippines
in 2019 and in a province of Vietnam in 2020, and a hypothetical ASF
scenario in one region in North Macedonia, using the newly developed
Outbreak Costing Tool (OutCosT). The tool calculates the costs of 106
different items, broken down by up to four types of farms, and by who
assumes the cost (whether veterinary services, farmers or other
stakeholders). The total cost of CSF in Colombia was US$ 3.8 million of
which 88% represented the cost of the vaccination campaign. For ASF,
there were wide differences between countries: US$ 826,911 in Lao Cai
(Vietnam), US$ 3,319,666 in North Macedonia and over US$ 58 million in
the Philippines. While in the Philippines and Vietnam, 96-98% of the
cost occurred in the affected farms, the highest expenditure in North
Macedonia scenario was the movement control of the neighbouring and
at-risk farms (77%). These important differences between countries
depend on the spread of the disease, but also on the production systems
affected and the measures applied. Apart from the financial cost, these
diseases have other negative impacts, especially in the livelihoods of
smallholder farms. The OutCosT tool also allows users to evaluate
qualitatively other important aspects related to the epidemics, such as
the impact on human health, the environment, animal welfare,
socio-economic vulnerability, trading and political response. The main
purpose of the OutCosT, which will become a FAO corporate tool, is to
support country authorities to rapidly respond to ASF outbreaks by
estimating the associated costs, and for advocacy purposes to mobilize
resources at national or international levels.