Preterm births in Italy and putative risk factors before, during and
after COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study
Abstract
Objective: To investigate the trend in preterm birth (PTB)
rates and the influence of several potential maternal risk factors on
PTB in Italy from January 2018 to December 2022, before and after
COVID-19 pandemic. Design: Population-based study covering
86.11% of all Italian births. Methods: We conducted an
interrupted time series analysis to examine the PTB trend. Using Poisson
regressions, we assessed the associations (risk ratio, RR) of potential
risk factors with PTB and calculated their population impact fractions
(PIFs). Main outcome measures: Primary outcomes included the
temporal trends of PTB rates before and after the pandemic, and the
change during the pandemic. Secondary outcomes involved the associations
of potential risk factors with PTB rates, and PIFs. Results: We
observed a monthly decrease in PTB rate until July 2020 [-0.2% (95%
CI: -0.3; -0.1)], followed by an interruption with an abrupt drop of
-5% in July 2020 (95% CI: -7.3; -2.7). From August 2020 until December
2022 the trend remained flat (-0.02%, 95% CI: -0.5; 0.5). Among
studied risk factors, low maternal education, unemployment and foreign
nationality were associated with PTB [RR: 1.14 (95% CI: 1.04;1.24),
1.08 (1.05;1.12), and 1.17 (1.14;1.21), respectively], and showed a
decreasing trend after pandemics; the impact (PIFs) on PTB rates was
modest with a decrease between 2.4 and 4.2‰ PTB. Conclusions:
We confirmed a decrease in PTB rates before and during the pandemic
described also in other European countries. In Italy, post-pandemic PTB
trend remained flat. Socioeconomic risk factors for PTB only marginally
explained this pattern. Tweetable abstract In Italy, the
decrease in preterm births before and during COVID-19 stopped after the
pandemic; the impact of socio-economic disparities was minimal