Can phenology and plasticity prevent adaptive clines in tolerance limits
across temperate mountains?
Abstract
Critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) are predicted to decrease with
elevation, with greater change in CTmin, and the risk to suffer heat and
cold stress increasing at the gradient ends. A central prediction is
that populations will adapt to the prevailing climatic conditions. Yet,
reliable support for such expectation is scant because of the complexity
of integrating phenotypic and molecular divergence. We propose that
phenotypic plasticity and breeding phenology may hinder local adaptation
cancelling the appearance of adaptive patterns. We examined
intraspecific variation of CTmax/CTmin in 11 populations of an amphibian
across an elevational gradient, and assessed (1) the existence of local
adaptation through a PST-FST comparison, (2) the acclimation scope in
both thermal limits, and (3) the vulnerability to suffer acute heat
(CTmax–tmax) and cold (tmin–CTmin) thermal stress, measured at both
macro- and microclimatic scales. Our study revealed significant
microgeographic variation in CTmax/CTmin, and unexpected elevation
gradients in pond temperatures. However, variation in CTmax/CTmin could
not be attributed to selection because critical thermal limits were not
correlated to elevation or temperatures. Differences in breeding
phenology among populations resulted in exposure to higher and more
variable temperatures at mid and high elevations. Accordingly, mid- and
high-elevation populations had higher CTmax and CTmin plasticities than
lowland populations, but not more extreme CTmax/CTmin. Thus, we confirm
our prediction that plasticity and phenological shifts may hinder local
adaptation, promoting thermal niche conservatism and a higher
vulnerability to climate change. This contradicts some of the existing
predictions on adaptive thermal clines.