Abstract
Urbanization has a strong signal on the hydrologic cycle, leading to
reduced infiltration, and faster and larger runoff. However, less is
known in watersheds that have been experiencing such a large and rapid
urbanization as those in China. Here we focus on the Wenyu watershed, a
fast urbanizing basin located in the Beijing metropolitan area. Using a
statistical attribution framework, we examine the hydrological response
to the increasing urbanization across a wide range of discharge
quantiles, from low to high flows; moreover, we perform analyses at the
seasonal scale to capture differences in the physical processes at play
during the year. In addition to impervious areas, we also consider
precipitation, temperature, antecedent wetness, recycled water amount,
and groundwater level as potential predictors. Results indicate that our
models can capture well the variability in streamflow in this highly
urbanized basin. Overall, urbanization played a different role for the
different seasons and discharge quantiles. More specifically, we find
its strongest impact to be in winter and spring, and for low and median
quantiles. The role of precipitation is the strongest in summer, and it
increases as we move towards the upper tail of the discharge
distribution. Recycled water, on the other hand, tends to play a more
dominant role in winter and spring.