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\title{Future decline of Antarctic Circumpolar Current due to polar ocean freshening}



\author[1,2]{Taimoor Sohail}%
\author[3,4,5]{Bishakhdatta Gayen}%
\author[6]{Andreas Klocker}%
\affil[1]{School of Mathematics and Statis-tics, University of New South Wales}%
\affil[2]{Australian Center for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales}%
\affil[3]{Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Melbourne}%
\affil[4]{Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science}%
\affil[5]{Australian Center for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Melbourne}%
\affil[6]{NORCE Norwe-gian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research}%


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  \date{April 25, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the world's strongest ocean
current. This vast current system is linked to ocean overturning and is
pivotal to the uptake of ocean heat and CO2. The strength of the
Antarctic Circumpolar Current has varied across Earth's past climates,
but the exact drivers of this change remain elusive. Ocean models have
not been able to adequately resolve eddies and dense shelf water
formation processes that control current strength. Here, we assess a
global ocean model which resolves such processes to diagnose the impact
of future thermohaline and wind conditions on the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current. This model suggests the strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current will decline by up to ~ 20\% by 2050. This decline is supported
by simple scaling theory, and is driven by ice shelf melting, which
weakens the density gradient historically supported by surface
temperature. Such a decline in transport would have critical
implications for the global ocean circulation, and hence, Earth's
climate system.%
\end{abstract}%



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