“Accidents waiting to happen” – insights from a simple model on the
emergence of infectious agents in new hosts.
Abstract
This study evaluates through modeling the possible individual and
combined effect of three populational parameters of pathogens
(reproduction rate; rate of novelty emergence; and propagule size) on
the colonization of new host species – putatively the most fundamental
process leading to the emergence of new infectious diseases. The results
are analyzed under the theoretical framework of the Stockholm Paradigm
using IBM simulations to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of
the pathogen population and the possible role of Ecological Fitting. The
simulations suggest that all three parameters positively influence the
success of colonization of new hosts by a novel parasite population but
contrary to the prevailing belief, the rate of novelty emergence (e.g.
mutations) is the least important factor. Maximization of all parameters
result in a synergetic facilitation of the colonization and emulates the
expected scenario for pathogenic microorganisms. The simulations also
provide theoretical support for the retention of the capacity of
fast-evolving lineages to retro-colonize their previous host
species/lineage by ecological fitting. Capacity is, thus, much larger
than we can anticipate. Hence, the results support the empirical
observations that opportunity of encounter (i.e. the breakdown in
mechanisms for ecological isolation) is an fundamental determinant to
the emergence of new associations - in special of Emergent Infectious
Diseases - and the dynamics of host exploration, as observed in
SARS-CoV-2. Insights on the dynamics of Emergent Infectious Diseases
derived from the simulations and from the Stockholm Paradigm are
discussed.