Abstract
Research hypotheses have been a cornerstone of science since before
Galileo. Many have argued that inclusion of multiple hypotheses (1)
encourage discovery of mechanisms, and (2) reduce bias – both features
that should increase transferability and reproducibility. However, we
are entering a new era of big data and highly predictive models where
some argue the hypothesis is outmoded. Indeed, using a detailed
literature analysis, we found prevalence of hypotheses in eco-evo
research is very low (6.7-26%) and static from 1990-2015, a pattern
mirrored in an extensive literature search (N=302,558 articles). Our
literature review also indicates that neither grant success or citation
rates were related to the inclusion of hypotheses, which may provide
disincentive for hypothesis formulation. Here we confront common
justifications for avoiding hypotheses and present new arguments based
on benefits to the individual. Although hypotheses are not always
necessary, we expect their continued and increased use will help our
fields move toward greater understanding, reproducibility, prediction,
and effective conservation of nature.