Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for
boreal Lepidoptera
Abstract
Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by
dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance
each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and
spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species
by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the
species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half
(47%) -used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive
population trends was observed for the minority of species (13%) that
both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range
boundaries northward. We show that, for Boreal Lepidoptera, a
combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy
under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into
winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this
combination, with potentially large consequences on future community
composition.