Harvest and density-dependent predation drive long term population
decline in a northern ungulate
Abstract
The relative effect of top-down versus bottom-up forces in regulating
and limiting wildlife populations is an important theme in ecology.
Untangling these effects is critical for basic understanding of trophic
dynamics and effective management. We examined the drivers of moose
abundance by integrating two sets of observations to create one of the
largest existing spatiotemporal datasets on ungulate population dynamics
globally. We documented a 20% population decline. At high density,
moose were regulated by intraspecific competition. Predation primarily
limited population growth, except at low density, where it was
regulating. Harvest was largely additive and contributed to population
decline. Our results provide strong evidence for density dependent
predation, highlighting that population dynamics are context dependent
and vary strongly across gradients in climate, forest type and predator
abundance. These results clarify longstanding questions in population
ecology and highlight the complex relationships between natural and
human-caused mortality in driving ungulate population dynamics.