The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework combines a probabilistic forecast structure with process-based models for water supply predictions. However, process-based models require computationally intensive parameter estimation, increasing uncertainties and limiting usability. Motivated by the strong performance of deep learning models, we seek to assess whether the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model can provide skillful forecasts and replace process-based models within the ESP framework. Given challenges in implicitly capturing snowpack dynamics within LSTMs for streamflow prediction, we also evaluated the added skill of explicitly incorporating snowpack information to improve hydrologic memory representation. LSTM-ESPs were evaluated under four different scenarios: one excluding snow and three including snow with varied snowpack representations. The LSTM models were trained using information from 664 GAGES-II basins during WY1983-2000. During a testing period, WY2001-2010, 80% of basins exhibited Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) above 0.5 with a median NSE of around 0.70, indicating satisfactory utility in simulating seasonal water supply. LSTM-ESP forecasts were then tested during WY2011-2020 over 76 western US basins with operational NRCS forecasts. A key finding is that in high snow regions, LSTM-ESP forecasts using simplified ablation assumptions performed worse than those excluding snow, highlighting that snow data do not consistently improve LSTM-ESP performance. However, LSTM-ESP forecasts that explicitly incorporated past years’ snow accumulation and ablation performed comparably to NRCS forecasts and better than forecasts excluding snow entirely. Overall, integrating deep learning within an ESP framework shows promise and highlights important considerations for including snowpack information in forecasting.

Montane snowpack is a vital source of water supply in the Western United States. However, the future of snow in these regions in a changing climate is uncertain. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the consistency across 124 statistically downscaled snow water equivilent (SWE) projections between end-of-century (2076 – 2095) and early 21st century (2106 – 2035) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and spring snowmelt (15 May) in five western US montane domains. By benchmarking SWE climate change signals using the disparity between snow projections, we identified relationships between SWE projections that were repeatable across each domain, but shifted in elevation. In low to mid-elevations, 15 April average projected decreases to SWE of 48% or larger were greater than the disparity between models. Despite this, a significant portion of 15 April SWE volume (39 – 93%) existed in higher elevation regions where the disparities between snow projections exceeded the projected changes to SWE. Results also found that 15 April and 15 May projections were strongly correlated (r 0.82), suggesting that improvements to the spread and certainty of 15 April SWE projections would translate to improvements in later dates. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify both 1) the highest-confidence changes to future snow water resources, and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit future snow projections.

Extreme heat waves beset western North America during 2021, including a 46.7°C (116°F) observation in Portland, Oregon, an astonishing 5°C above the previous record. Using Portland as an example we provide evidence for a latent risk of extreme heat waves in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and along the west coast of the United States where a maritime climate and its intrinsic variations yield a positive skewness in summertime daily maximum temperatures. A generalized Pareto extreme value analysis yields a heavy tailed distribution with a return period of 300-1000 years, indicating that, while rare, the event was possible, contrary to prior claims that the event was “virtually impossible”. We demonstrate that the extreme temperatures can be explained by the coincident extreme values of geopotential heights, and that the relationship between heights and extreme temperatures has not materially changed over the observational record. The dynamical nature of the event along with recent developments in stochastic theory justifies the use of skewed and heavy-tailed distributions which may provide the basis for a more proactive approach to managing the risk of future events.

Anthropogenic global warming caused by increased atmospheric carbon forcing is expected to cause a decrease in peak snow water equivalent (SWE), shift the timing of snowmelt to earlier in the year, and lead to slower melt rates in the mountains of the Western United States. High-elevation forests in mountainous terrain represent a critical carbon sink. Understanding the ecohydrology of subalpine forests is crucial for assessing the health of these sinks. The Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, located at 3000 m amsl in the southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado, receives just over 1 m of annual precipitation mostly as snow, supporting a persistent seasonal snowpack in alpine and subalpine ecosystems. Previous studies show that longer growing season length is correlated with shallower snowpack, earlier spring onset and reduced net CO2 uptake. Co-located sensors provide over 20 years of continuous SWE and eddy covariance (EC) data, allowing for robust direct comparison of snow and carbon phenomena in a high-elevation catchment. Linear regression and time series analysis was performed on snowmelt, meteorological, phenological and ecosystem productivity variables. Peak productivity is correlated with peak SWE (R2=0.54) and further correlated with snowmelt disappearance (R2=0.38) and the timing of spring growth onset (R2=0.30). Timing of both peak productivity and spring growth onset are correlated with snowmelt and meteorological variables. A multivariable regression of meteorological variables, timing of spring growth onset, a temporal trend, and snowmelt rate and explains 94% of interannual variability in the timing of peak forest productivity. These results develop support and introduce new evidence for the existing studies of Niwot Ridge ecohydrology. Future work will investigate the meteorological and hydrological record extending back to 1979 and the long-term trends in snowmelt and forest productivity.

This presentation will explore land cover change impacts on hydrology, starting by posing the question: What makes a watershed sensitive to forest disturbance? Despite a long appreciation of the significance of forested watersheds to water supplies—supplying water to more than 180 million people in the U.S.—watershed sensitivity to forest disturbances remains difficult to predict. Individual studies have often contradicted long-standing understanding that forest disturbance leads to increases in total water yield. This research seeks to address the above question by linking a national-scale watershed database with high-resolution forest disturbance imagery. Results indicate that disturbance can caused significant changes (both increases and decreases) in water yield and streamflow timing. Watersheds exhibiting post-disturbance increases or decreases in water yield were found to be distinct from each other (p<0.05) and regional patterns of sensitivity are explored in the context of observable climatic and physiographic variables. The last part of the presentation will explore the development of a multi-algorithm sediment modeling system motivated towards understanding the impacts of changing climate and land cover on sediment yield. Sediment loading driven by current and future hydrological extremes challenges drinking water utilities’ ability to treat water to meet regulatory and public health protection goals. This framework is tested over medium sized (~1000 sq. km) watersheds, with the aim of a larger-scale analysis over the western U.S.

The Niwot Ridge and Green Lakes Valley (NWT) long-term ecological research (LTER) site collects environmental observations spanning both alpine and subalpine regimes. The first observations began in 1952 and have since expanded to nearly 300 available datasets over an area of 99 km2 within the north-central Colorado Rocky Mountains that include hydrological (n = 101), biological (n = 79), biogeochemical (n = 62), and geographical (n = 56) observations. The NWT LTER database is well suited to support hydrologic investigations that require long-term and interdisciplinary data sets. Experimentation and data collection at the NWT LTER are designed to characterize ecological responses of high-mountain environments to changes in climate, nutrients, and water availability. In addition to the continuation of the many legacy NWT datasets, expansion of the breadth and utility of the NWT LTER database is driven by new initiatives including (a) a catchment-scale sensor network of soil moisture, temperature, humidity, and snow-depth observations to understand hydrologic connectivity and (b) snow-albedo alteration experiments using black carbon to evaluate the effects of snow-disappearance on ecosystems. Together, these observational and experimental datasets provide a substantial foundation for hydrologic studies seeking to understand and predict changes to catchment and local-scale process interactions.

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall-triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select among a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide-triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity-duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of 228 reported landslides across the continental US and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296 mm with an average range of 51 mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8 mm/hr and as much as 57 mm/hr. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity-duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit-ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually-verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.