Abstract
The Earth’s biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides are
declining rapidly because of an increasing use of natural (finite)
resources to meet human needs and environmental change affecting
biodiversity dynamics. Truly trans-disciplinary solutions are needed for
a sustainable development of ecosystem services. Collaboration and
knowledge transfer across paleo biology, climatology, global ecology,
evolution, biogeography, water sciences, computer science, statistics,
and economics has to be mustered for scientists, resources managers and
policy makers to counter ecosystem function collapse and ecosystem
services loss. We propose a novel framework that closes the
implementation gap, in which long-term dynamics of biodiversity, abiotic
properties, and ecosystem functions are reconstructed using an
unprecedented integration of biochemical and environmental
fingerprinting of biological archives spanning centuries. The long-term
dynamics obtained from this fingerprinting are then placed in a machine
learning pipeline to identify cause-effect relations between
environmental change and biodiversity dynamics. Predictive models are
tested by hindcasting, and then used to accurately forecast the future
of ecosystem services and their socio-economic impact under different
climate change scenarios. The framework provides accessible tools to
practitioners to translate cutting-edge research into practical
solutions for environmental management and practice.