Abstract
The Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology (METE) predicts the shapes of
macroecological metrics in relatively static ecosystems using
constraints imposed by static state variables. In disturbed ecosystems,
however, with time-varying state variables, its predictions often fail.
We extend macroecological theory from static to dynamic by combining the
MaxEnt inference procedure with explicit mechanisms governing
disturbance. In the static limit, the resulting theory, DynaMETE,
reduces to METE but also predicts new scaling relationships among static
state variables. Under disturbances, expressed as shifts in demographic,
ontogenic growth, or migration rates, DynaMETE predicts the time
trajectories of the state variables as well as the time-varying shapes
of macroecological metrics such as the species abundance distribution
and the distribution of metabolic rates over individuals. An iterative
procedure for completely solving the dynamic theory is presented. In a
lowest-order iteration, characteristic signatures of the deviation from
static predictions of macroecolgoical patterns are shown to result from
different kinds of disturbance. Because DynaMETE combines MaxEnt
inference with explicit dynamical mechanisms, but does not assume any
specific trait distributions over species or individuals, it is widely
applicable across diverse ecosystems. This makes it a promising theory
of macroecology for ecosystems responding to anthropogenic or natural
disturbances.