Angiographic Scoring System for Predicting Successful Percutaneous
Coronary Intervention of In-Stent Chronic Total Occlusion
Abstract
BACKGROUND No scoring models for IS-CTO have been established because of
its in-stent characteristics. The purpose of this study was to develop a
scoring model to predict the technical success of recanalizing in-stent
chronic total occlusion (IS-CTO) by percutaneous coronary intervention
(PCI). METHODS We retrospectively collected data from 474 patients who
underwent an IS-CTO PCI from January 2015 to December 2018,
consecutively. We selected clinical and angiographic factors and
utilized a derivation and validation cohort (4:1 sampling ratio)
analysis. Factors with strong correlations with technical failure,
according to multivariable analysis, were assigned 1 point, and a
scoring system with a 4-point maximum was established. The model was
then validated with a validation cohort. RESULTS The overall procedural
success rate was 77.4%. On multivariable analysis, the factors that
correlated with technical failure were proximal bending (beta
coefficient [β] = 2.142), tortuosity (β = 2.622), stent under
expansion (β = 3.052), and poor distal landing zone (β = 2.004). The
IS-CTO score demonstrated good calibration and excellent predicting
capacity in the derivation (receiver-operator characteristic [ROC]
area = 0.973 and Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-squared = 5.252; p = 0.072) and
validation (ROC area = 0.976 and Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-squared =0.916; p =
0.632) cohorts. In the validation subset, the IS-CTO score demonstrated
superior performance to the J-CTO and PROGRESS CTO scores for predicting
technical success (area under the a curve [AUC] 0.976 vs 0.662 vs
0.579, respectively; difference in AUC between the IS-CTO score and
J-CTO score = 0.314, p < 0.01; difference in AUC between the
IS-CTO score and PROGRESS score = 0.397, p < 0.01).
CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the IS-CTO score system is a
helpful tool to predict the technical success of IS-CTO PCI. Key words:
In-stent chronic total occlusion; Percutaneous coronary intervention;
Predicting factor; Scoring sys