loading page

Development of a risk prediction model for severe patients with COVID-19
  • +6
  • Pengqiang Du,
  • Su Shen,
  • Rufei Ma,
  • Quncheng Zhang,
  • Hongwei Zhao,
  • Mingyue Chen,
  • Ming Ni,
  • Qingli Shen,
  • Xingang Li
Pengqiang Du
Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Fuwai Central China Cardiovascular Hospital, Central China Fuwai Hospital of Zhengzhou University

Corresponding Author:dupengqiang2018@126.com

Author Profile
Su Shen
Beijing Friendship Hospital
Author Profile
Rufei Ma
Henan Provincial People’s Hospital, People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University
Author Profile
Quncheng Zhang
Henan Provincial People’s Hospital, People’s Hospital of Zhengzhou University
Author Profile
Hongwei Zhao
Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Fuwai Central China Cardiovascular Hospital, Central China Fuwai Hospital of Zhengzhou University
Author Profile
Mingyue Chen
Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Fuwai Central China Cardiovascular Hospital, Central China Fuwai Hospital of Zhengzhou University
Author Profile
Ming Ni
Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Fuwai Central China Cardiovascular Hospital, Central China Fuwai Hospital of Zhengzhou University
Author Profile
Qingli Shen
Henan Provincial People's Hospital
Author Profile
Xingang Li
Beijing Friendship Hospital
Author Profile

Abstract

An outbreak of COVID-19 has spread worldwide, and it is urgent to evaluate risk factors associated with severe cases. We aimed to identify risk factors for severe patients with COVID-19. A total of 52 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Henan Provincial People’s Hospital were enrolled in this study, and patients’ information was extracted from electronic medical records. The severity of symptoms of COVID-19 was divided into “mild” and “severe.” Univariate analysis was used to select potential risk factors. A risk model was constructed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Advanced age (OR = 1.098, 95% CI = 1.020-1.183) and number of comorbidities (OR = 6.067, 95% CI = 1.078-34.143) were significant risk factors for severe patients with COVID-19. The comorbidities included hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and past surgical history. A risk score was developed based on this model, and the developed risk prediction model had good discriminative power and was well-calibrated. This study indicates that advanced age and comorbidities are risk factors for severe patients with COVID-19. More attention should be paid to high-risk patients during hospitalization.