Inconsistent species interactions across replicated systems may hinder
generalisation of dynamical processes
- Willem Bonnaffé,
- Tim Coulson
Willem Bonnaffé
University of Oxford
Corresponding Author:w.bonnaffe@gmail.com
Author ProfileAbstract
Generalisation of dynamical processes across natural systems is
difficult because of their complexity and unobserved variables. The hope
is that generalisation may be achieved if we model adequately the
complexity of systems, and observe them in sufficient detail. Yet, there
is still limited support for this claim. We investigate this by looking
at the consistency of ecological interactions across three replicates of
a three-species prey-predator system, well-observed in an artificial
environment, using neural ordinary differential equations. We find that
dominant interactions are consistent across the replicates, while weaker
interactions are not, leading to different dynamical patterns across
replicated systems. Our study hence suggests that generalisation of
dynamical processes across systems may not be possible, even in simpler
systems in ideal monitoring conditions. This is a problem because if we
are not able to make generalisations in a simple artificial system, how
can we make generalisation in the real world?