Changes in Flight Period Predict Trends in Abundance of Massachusetts
Butterflies
- James Michielini,
- Erik Dopman,
- Elizabeth Crone
James Michielini
Tufts University
Corresponding Author:james.michielini@tufts.edu
Author ProfileAbstract
Phenological shifts are well-documented in the ecological literature.
However, their significance for changes in demography and abundance is
less clear. We used 27 years of citizen science monitoring to quantify
trends in phenology and relative abundance across 89 butterfly species.
We calculated shifts in phenology using quantile regression and shifts
in relative abundance using list length analysis and counts from club
trips. Elongated activity periods within a year were the strongest
predictor of increases in relative abundance. These changes may be
driven in part by changes in voltinism, as this association was stronger
in multivoltine species. Some species appear to be adding a late-season
generation while other species appear to be adding a spring generation,
revealing a possible shift from vagrant to resident. Our results
emphasize the importance of evaluating phenological changes throughout
species' activity periods and understanding the consequences for such
climate-related changes on viability or population dynamics.06 Apr 2020Submitted to Ecology Letters 04 May 2020Submission Checks Completed
04 May 2020Assigned to Editor
13 May 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
24 Jun 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
02 Jul 2020Editorial Decision: Revise Major
27 Aug 20201st Revision Received
28 Aug 2020Submission Checks Completed
28 Aug 2020Assigned to Editor
04 Sep 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
25 Sep 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
02 Oct 2020Editorial Decision: Accept
Feb 2021Published in Ecology Letters volume 24 issue 2 on pages 249-257. 10.1111/ele.13637