Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared a pandemic of 2020
by World Health Organization (WHO). Due to its novelty there is very
little knowledge available about it, and thus there is a great need of
collection of data related to COVID-19, from all around the world.
Hence, we have conducted this study, collecting daily data on COVID-19
from National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan and WHO, to map the
epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreak, forecast its trajectory from 4th
April till 30th April, and review the preventive measures taken by
government of Pakistan. The data was collected from NIH-Pakistan and WHO
official released reports, analysis was done using SPSS version 23 and
forecasting was made using time series modeler / expert modeler. The
purpose of this study is to draw the attention of international as well
as national governing bodies towards the rapidly rising number of
COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, and the urgency to evaluate the efficacy of
currently implemented strategy against COVID-19. According to this
study, the spread of COVID-19 is slower than predicted, but there is an
alarming increase in growth rate now, and the predicted COVID-19 cases
by the end of April can go up to around 8,000 or higher. Hence, it is
crucial for the governing bodies to re-evaluate the current situation
and implemented strategy. Discussions should be conducted by the
administrators and researchers for any change in the strategy if
required, before the situation further aggravates.