Rationalizing Systems Analysis for the Evaluation of Adaptation
Strategies in Complex Human-Water Systems
Abstract
Water resources management is a non-trivial process requiring a holistic
understanding of the factors driving the dynamics of human-water
systems. Policy-induced or autonomous behavioral changes in human
systems may affect water and land management, which may affect water
systems and feedback to human systems, further impacting water and land
management. Currently, hydro-economic models lack the ability to
describe such dynamics either because they do not account for the
multi-factor/multi-output nature of these systems, and/or are not
designed to operate at a river basin scale. This paper presents a
flexible and replicable methodological framework for integrating a
microeconomic multi-factor/multi-output Positive Multi-Attribute Utility
Programming (PMAUP) model with an eco-hydrologic model, the Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The connection between the models occurs
in a sequential modular approach through a common spatial unit, the
“Hydrologic-Economic Representative Units” (HERUs), derived from the
boundaries of decision-making entities and hydrologic responsive units.
The resulting SWAT-PMAUP model aims to provide the means for exploring
the dynamics between the behavior of socio-economic agents and their
connection with the water system through water and land management. The
integrated model is illustrated by simulating the impacts of irrigation
restriction policies on the Río Mundo sub-basin in south-eastern Spain.
The results suggest that agents’ adaptation strategies in response to
the irrigation restrictions have broad economic impacts and subsequent
consequences on surface and groundwater resources. We suggest that the
integrated modeling framework can be a valuable tool to support
decision-making in water resources management across a wide range of
scales.