Climate change modeling
Climate change scenarios were projected using the best predictive model for current habitat suitability, for the periods 2009-2049 and 2009-2069. Current predicted suitable habitat was subtracted from composite binary presence/absence maps using both general circulation models (GCM’s), with range differences counted as contractions if a current presence was projected as a future absence, refuge if current presences remained presences and expansion if current unsuitable habitat was projected as suitable in the future (Elith et al., 2010; Hatten et al., 2016; Albuquerque et al., 2018). Box plots showing the two most significant environmental predictors and their influence on range changes are presented. The proportion of expansion or contraction of future ranges relative to current habitat suitability were calculated and are shown. Prediction maps are also presented with visualizations of projected expansion and contraction.
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