Climate change
Future climate change scenarios indicate a contraction ofCochemiea halei ’s range of 21% to 53%, depending on the severity of climate change and the length of time the species is exposed to climate change effects (Table 1). The range contraction reduces suitable habitat on the islands, and the species is unlikely to expand to the peninsula within the climate change conditions and time periods projected here. The unique adaptations of narrowly distributed endemic plant species such as C. halei also make them vulnerable to changing climate conditions, as those adaptations are often in response to significantly different local climates or soil types that are unsuitable for related species (Damschen, Harrison, Ackerly, Fernandez-Going, & Anacker, 2012).
Specifically, each of the climate change scenarios projected in this study indicates a widening of the annual temperature range on the islands, which significantly increases the range contraction and limits expansion. The areas of predicted contraction under all scenarios are lower elevation, mostly bayside, leeward flats (Figs. 7 and 8). The areas of expansion are mostly into the higher elevation ridges, especially on Isla Margarita. But the opportunity to expand into these higher elevation locales is greatly reduced as climate change becomes more severe, or persists for a longer time period.
Projections under all climate change scenarios are for a higher mean temperature of the warmest quarter, ranging from approximately 3 C to as high as 6 C. Precipitation of the warmest and coldest quarters is projected to decrease by from 10 mm to 15 mm for regions of predicted range contraction. The wider thermal span and the warmer mean temperature from July–September, along with reduced precipitation, are combined factors that contribute to range contraction, driven by hotter, drier climate. Predicted range contractions are consistent with Cochemiea halei ’s narrow adaptation to a distinct island climate.
For the first time, temperature and precipitation correlates are identified that drive the fragmented, highly restricted distribution of an island endemic, vulnerable cactus. We used multiple modeling methods to determine the correlations between topographical and climate variables and the habitat suitability of Cochemiea halei , a little-studied, island isolated cactus. Our results support the following conclusions: (1) both the moderating effects of Pacific coastal island climate and ultramafic soils unique to the islands strongly determine suitable habitat, which is fragmented, (2) the species is unlikely to disperse to the peninsula, (3) the species has a facultative but not obligate relationship with ultramafic soils, (4) climate change in all scenarios is likely to contract the range of the species, as a result of greater variability in annual temperature range, higher mean temperatures in the summer and reduced precipitation. Our findings indicate that this narrowly restricted endemic cactus is at increased risk of extinction, and populations should be carefully monitored over at least the next 50 years.
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Data Accessibility Statement : The data that support the findings in this paper, including locality data and raster files of the climate variables used in modeling, are available at the Dryad data repository.
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