A Bayesian network approach to trophic metacommunities shows habitat
loss accelerates top species extinctions
Abstract
We develop a novel approach to trophic metacommunities and use it to
study the effect of habitat loss on food webs. Our method assigns a
spatially realistic Levins-type metapopulation model to each species,
then couples them by making species extinction rates depend on the
likelihood of the presence of species’ prey items via a Bayesian network
representation of the food web. The method yields general insights into
metacommunity ecology, revealing that metacommunity processes alone can
restrict the maximum number of trophic levels to a handful at most over
fragmented landscapes, independent of energetic or other constraints. It
also allows one to repurpose known results of classical metapopulation
theory for metacommunities, such as ranking the habitat patches of the
landscape with respect to their importance to the persistence of the
metacommunity as a whole. Using these tools, we explore how progressive
habitat loss affects species extinction rates. The outcome depends on
the order of habitat removal: focusing on removing patches which are
least crucial to persistence first (best-case scenario) means the
metacommunities can often tolerate the removal of more than 90% of
their patches. Whereas removing the most crucial patches first
(worst-case scenario) leads to the collapse of metacommunities very
quickly. Surprisingly, removing patches at random is nearly
indistinguishable in its effects from the worst-case scenario. In all
cases, species’ vulnerability to habitat loss is greater at higher
trophic levels, stressing the risk of network downsizing for food webs
under progressive habitat loss.