Figure 4. Ecosystem (ECOS) and ecosystem-evolutionary (EVOL)
responses of SOC equilibrium to + 5 °C warming predicted for five sites.
a-d , ECOS response. e-h , EVOL response. i-l, EVO
effect given by equation (11). AK: Alaska, boreal forest,T 0 = 0.1°C. ME: Maine, temperate forest,T 0 = 5°C. WV: West Virginia, temperate forest,T 0 = 9°C. CA: California, temperate grassland,T 0 = 17°C. CR: Costa Rica, tropical rain forest,T 0 = 26°C. First row (a, e, i ): baseline
kinetics-only scenario of temperature dependence. Second row (b,
f, j ): temperature-dependent microbial mortality scenario withE dM = 25 < \(E_{v}^{U}\). Third row
(c , g , k ): temperature- dependent microbial
mortality scenario with E dM = 55 >\(E_{v}^{U}\). Fourth row (d, h, l ): temperature-dependent MGE
scenario (m = - 0.014). The influence of competition asymmetry,c 0, is shown (low: c 0 =
1.17, intermediate: c 0 = 1.34, high:c 0 = 1.5). For clarity, vertical axis for ECOS
and EVOL responses are truncated at - 65 mg C cm-3.
Actual values for AK with c 0 = 1.17 are ECOS
response = - 170 mg C cm-3 and EVOL response = - 556
mg C cm-3; actual value for WV withc 0 = 1.17 is EVOL response = - 92.8 mg C
cm-3. Parameter values correspond to point B2 in Fig.
2 (\({I=5\ 10}^{-3}\), \(v_{0}^{U}=10^{5}\), \(E_{v}^{U}=38\),\(c_{0}=1.17\)); other parameters are set to their default values
(Supplementary Table 1).