Inter-annual variability in snow cover depletion patterns and
atmospheric circulation indices in the Upper Irtysh basin, Central Asia
Abstract
The Irtysh River is the main water resource of eastern Kazakhstan and
its upper basin is severely affected by spring floods each year,
primarily as a result of snowmelt. Knowledge of the large scale
processes that influence the timing of these snow-induced floods is
currently lacking, but critical for the management of water resources in
the area. In this study, we evaluated the variability in winter-spring
snow cover in five major sub-basins of the Upper Irtysh basin between
2000 and 2017 as a possible explanatory factor of spring flood events,
assessing the time of peak snow cover depletion rate and snow cover
disappearance from the MODIS MOD10A2 dataset. We found that on average,
peak snow cover retreat occurs between 22 March and 14 April depending
on the basin, with large inter-annual variations but no clear trend over
the observation period. In contrast, the annual peak snow cover
depletion rate displays a weak increasing trend over the study period
and exceeded 5900 km2 day-1 in 2017. The timing of snow disappearance in
spring shows significant correlations of up to 0.82 for the largest
basin with winter indices of the Arctic Oscillation over the region. The
primary driver is the impact of the large scale pressure anomalies upon
the mean spring (MAM) air temperatures and resultant timing of snow
cover disappearance, particularly at elevations 500-2000 m above sea
level. This suggests a lagged effect of this atmospheric circulation
pattern in spring snow cover retreat. The winter Arctic Oscillation
index could therefore be incorporated into long-term runoff forecasts
for the Irtysh. Our approach is easily transferable to other similar
catchments, and could support flood management strategies in Kazakhstan
and other countries.