Seasonality of Lower Tropospheric Stability in the Community Earth
System Model Large Ensemble
Abstract
Arctic amplification is a near-universal feature of climate change in
simulations. However, climate models disagree in its magnitude and in
its spatial and seasonal expression. Lower tropospheric stability (LTS =
T_{850hpa} - T_{2m}) has been linked to Arctic amplification
through its influence on radiative cooling efficiency and vertical
propagation of surface fluxes. Using monthly mean output from the
Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LE) we find that
internal variability in CESM LE is insufficient to explain the
differences in LTS distributions over the Arctic Ocean found in CMIP3
and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles.To facilitate comparison with prior work
we compare the CESM LE output to the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-I)
for the period 1979-2005. Over the ocean surfaces north of 60°, LTS
exhibits a bimodal distribution. Dividing model and reanalysis output
into open water and sea ice domains based on a sea ice concentration
(SIC) threshold of 15% confirms LTS bimodality is the result of summing
distinct distributions. Over sea ice, median NDJF LTS is 3.6 K in ERA-I
and ranges from 5.7 K to 6.9 K in the CESM LE. Interquartile range of
NDJF LTS is 4.7 K in ERA-I and varies from 9.6 K and 10.5 K across the
ensemble. Spatial and seasonal patterns of LTS are qualitatively similar
in the model and reanalysis: over ice LTS is positive through most of
the year and slightly negative in the summer, and interannual
variability is highest near the ice edge. However, the seasonal cycle of
stability is stronger in CESM LE. We find that stability during early
spring is consistently higher in CESM LE than in ERA-I. The enhanced
variability over the central Arctic in CESM LE appears to be the result
of variation in sea ice thickness.