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Seasonality of Lower Tropospheric Stability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble
  • Daniel Watkins,
  • Jennifer Hutchings
Daniel Watkins
Oregon State University

Corresponding Author:watkdani@oregonstate.edu

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Jennifer Hutchings
Oregon State University
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Abstract

Arctic amplification is a near-universal feature of climate change in simulations. However, climate models disagree in its magnitude and in its spatial and seasonal expression. Lower tropospheric stability (LTS = T_{850hpa} - T_{2m}) has been linked to Arctic amplification through its influence on radiative cooling efficiency and vertical propagation of surface fluxes. Using monthly mean output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LE) we find that internal variability in CESM LE is insufficient to explain the differences in LTS distributions over the Arctic Ocean found in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles.To facilitate comparison with prior work we compare the CESM LE output to the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-I) for the period 1979-2005. Over the ocean surfaces north of 60°, LTS exhibits a bimodal distribution. Dividing model and reanalysis output into open water and sea ice domains based on a sea ice concentration (SIC) threshold of 15% confirms LTS bimodality is the result of summing distinct distributions. Over sea ice, median NDJF LTS is 3.6 K in ERA-I and ranges from 5.7 K to 6.9 K in the CESM LE. Interquartile range of NDJF LTS is 4.7 K in ERA-I and varies from 9.6 K and 10.5 K across the ensemble. Spatial and seasonal patterns of LTS are qualitatively similar in the model and reanalysis: over ice LTS is positive through most of the year and slightly negative in the summer, and interannual variability is highest near the ice edge. However, the seasonal cycle of stability is stronger in CESM LE. We find that stability during early spring is consistently higher in CESM LE than in ERA-I. The enhanced variability over the central Arctic in CESM LE appears to be the result of variation in sea ice thickness.