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\title{Impact of climate change on water sources and river-floodplain mixing in
the natural wetland floodplain of Biebrza River}



\author[1]{Tomasz Berezowski}%
\author[2]{Daniel Partington}%
\affil[1]{Gdańsk University of Technology}%
\affil[2]{Flinders University}%


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  \date{May 08, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
The origins of river and floodplain waters (groundwater, rainfall, and
snowmelt) and their extent during overbank flow events strongly impact
ecological processes such as denitrification and vegetation development.
However, the long-term sensitivity of floodplain water signatures to
climate change remains elusive. We examined how the integrated
hydrological model HydroGeoSphere and the Hydraulic Mixing-Cell method
could help us understand the long-term impact of climate change on water
signatures and their spatial distribution in the protected Biebrza River
Catchment in northeastern Poland. Our model relied on 20th century
Reanalysis Data from 1881 to 2015 and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX
simulations for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5,
and 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The historical component of the simulations
was subjected to extensive multiple-variable validation from 1881 to
2019. The results show that the extents of water sources were rather
stable in the floodplain in the 1881-2015 period. The projected future
impacts were variable with each analyzed RCP, but in all cases,
different significant trends were present for the spatial distribution
of water sources and for the river-floodplain mixing. However, the total
volume of water from different sources was less sensitive to climate
change than the dominant sources and spatial distribution of water. The
simulation results highlight the impact of climate change on the extent
of water sources in temperate zone wetlands with significant
implications for ecological processes and management. These results also
underscore the urgent need to leverage such modeling studies to inform
protective and preservation strategies of floodplain wetlands.%
\end{abstract}%



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