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A Causal Graph Attention Learning for Interpretable Cascading Failure Predictions in Power Systems with Renewable Generation via HVDC
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  • Shiqu Xiao,
  • Yang Fu,
  • Xiangjing Su,
  • Shaohua Zhang,
  • Jiajia Yang,
  • Cuo Zhang,
  • Zhao Yang Dong
Shiqu Xiao
Shanghai University
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Yang Fu
Shanghai University

Corresponding Author:mfudong@126.com

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Xiangjing Su
Shanghai University of Electric Power
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Shaohua Zhang
Shanghai University
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Jiajia Yang
University of New South Wales
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Cuo Zhang
The University of Sydney
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Zhao Yang Dong
Nanyang Technological University
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Abstract

The emergence of high-voltage direct current integrated (HVDC) power systems introduces significant out-of-distribution (OOD) challenges to machine learning-based analysis of cascading failures (CFs). Existing algorithms often suffer from poor interpretability and generalization in handling diverse CF propagation modes. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel Causal Graph Attention (CGAT) model that captures critical information from CF events to accurately predict propagation paths and impacts. Specifically, by employing a graph attention mechanism, the model extracts both causal and trivial features as distinctive attention dual subgraphs, which aids in differentiating shortcuts in causal variables and improving prediction accuracy. These subgraphs also provide visual representations that highlight the key elements influencing CF propagation. By incorporating interventions, the CGAT model enhance prediction capabilities across a variety of scenarios that include HVDC control strategies and renewable energy sources (RES). Extensive experiments on augmented IEEE 30-bus and 2737-sop systems demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed CGAT model.
12 Nov 2025Submitted to IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
24 Nov 2025Submission Checks Completed
24 Nov 2025Assigned to Editor
24 Nov 2025Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Feb 2026Reviewer(s) Assigned
28 Mar 2026Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
10 Apr 20261st Revision Received
11 Apr 2026Submission Checks Completed
11 Apr 2026Assigned to Editor
11 Apr 2026Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
11 Apr 2026Reviewer(s) Assigned