Smoke influence in urban areas is relatively easy to detect at high concentrations, but more challenging to detect at low concentrations. For this reason, we have evaluated an approach using thermal desorption gas chromatography mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) to detect volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in particular oxygenated VOCs in urban areas. The goal of this work is to develop a method that can reliably quantify smoke tracers in an urban environment at relatively low cost and complexity. We present here the development and validation of a double-bedded thermal desorption tube with an auto sampler to collect continuous samples of VOCs. To evaluate the method performance, we have tested stability during storage, interferences (e.g., water and O3), and reproducibility for six VOCs, namely, acetonitrile, acetone, pentane, iso-pentane, benzene, and toluene. The results demonstrate that these can be quantified reproducibly with an error ≤ 20% between the collection and analysis with a storage time of up to 21 days. For acetone, similar results were obtained until day 14. Calibration experiments performed over a dynamic range of 10–150 ng loaded over thermal desorption tubes at different relative humidity showed excellent linearity (r2 ≥ 0.91). At this time, we are utilizing this method during the summer 2019 FIREX-AQ intensive experiment at the Boise ground site in Idaho. These results will be presented along with the quality control data.

For many years, rainfall has been measured in Brazil on a daily basis only; hence it is unusual to find studies considering a better temporal resolution for the whole country. However, since 2013, the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) has started to monitor rainfall in a sub hourly basis at more than 3,000 gauges. This study is the first to analyze sub-daily characteristics of rainfall in Brazil on national scale. Raw data from 3 years (2015-2017) was downloaded from CEMADEN’s home page and then quality control procedures were applied to select the high-quality rain gauges. Then, two rainfall properties were calculated: (i) Number of Wet Days – NWD, which is the number of rainy days per year; and (ii) Number of Effective Wet Days – NEWD, which is the number of rainy hours per year divided by 24 hours. Both NWD and NEWD were grouped according to NEWD values and spatially analyzed. About 1,100 rain gauges were used in this study: 824 (2015), 1,288 (2016), and 1,385 (2017). NWD ranges from 26 to 226 days (average: 151 days), while NEWD ranges from 1.2 to 47.8 days (average: 14.3 days). Results showed that group A (NEWD < 10.3 days) contains gauges located in the Brazilian Mid-western and northeastern semiarid regions. Group B (10.3 ≤ NEWD < 13.2 days) occurs in parts of the coastal region of Northeast and highlands of Southeast. Groups C (13.2 ≤ NEWD < 17.4 days) and D (NEWD ≥17.45 days) are found in South and part of the Southeastern coastal region. The region with the most concentrated rainfall rates (group A) is the one with the lowest annual rainfall. Orographic effects seem to cause reduction in NEWD, from 15.2 days to 11.8 days (group B). Groups C and D comprehend the rainiest region, preceded by the Amazon region. Finally, we highlight that spatial distribution of NWD and NEWD did not change abruptly annually, with an overall ratio between them of ~10 times. Although in some regions rainfall occurs in four months, it effectively falls from 10 to 13 days. This study is important to understand how concentrated the rainfall is in the different Brazilian regions.

As a result of climate change, California is experiencing the impact of more extreme weather patterns including longer drought periods and atmospheric rivers resulting in extreme snow pack and heavy flood flows. CA faces a significant challenge to mitigate these impacts while simultaneously providing resilient sources of water under uncertain future conditions. One approach that addresses both flood mitigation and water storage is the use of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR). Ventura County Waterworks District #1 (VCWWD) is designing a MAR recharge facility to divert flood flows in the adjacent Arroyo Las Posas to a series of engineered basins, where water will infiltrate and replenish the local aquifer (estimated recharge: 3000 acre-feet annually). However, large uncertainties in percolation rates and an inability to predict or improve percolation (measured: 5 and 16 cm/day) places large uncertainties on the facility’s ultimate performance (and impact) on VCWWD’s overall strategy for sustainable groundwater management. The goals of this project are to use a suite of geophysical techniques, point sensors and novel modeling approaches to measure the basin(s) spatial recharge rates, where and how the water is infiltrating (fast paths) and how will basin modification improve recharge rates. Selected basins will first be characterized using electromagnetic methods and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) coupled with soil cores to estimate the distribution of subsurface permeability in order to design the infiltration monitoring layout. During managed flooding events Spontaneous Potential will be used to monitor subsurface leakage from the basins back into the river. Within a basin, novel vertical Distributed Temperature Profiling sensors will measure diurnal temperature fluxes to calculate spatially distributed 1-D vertical recharge rates and 3D time-lapse ERT to monitor and measure the spatially dynamic recharge. ERT results will be coupled with multi-point geostatistical simulations to estimate soil permeability field scenarios and with novel joint inversion codes to estimate volumetric recharge and rates, offering a powerful suite of tools for water managers to quantify, and potentially improve basin recharge rates and develop operational and maintenance plans to maximize recharge.

We explore the possibility that Callisto’s ocean sits beneath its high-pressure ice, rather than above it. Oceans perched between ice phases are considered to be stable configurations for Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan. High-pressure ices under the liquid water ocean will transport heat and solutes into the ocean as long as the convective adiabat for the ices remains close to the melting temperature (Choblet et al. 2017, Kalousova and Sotin 2018). However, this configuration may become unstable when the perched ocean is close to freezing and its salinity increases, if the ocean becomes denser than the underlying ice. Among the oceans in the solar system, Callisto’s must be among the coldest and most saline because the internal heat appears to be low in the absence of tidal dissipation. Surface geology indicates its lithosphere is fully stagnant (Moore et al. 2004). Solid-state convection may continue beneath less than 100 km or dirty non-convecting ice (McKinnon 2006). And just below this layer may reside a liquid water ocean that is the lag deposit of Callisto’s thicker primordial ocean, the concentrated result of 4 Gyr of freezing. Using representative interior structures based on the current constraints from the Galileo mission (Anderson et al. 2001) coupled with recently obtained thermodynamic data (Vance et al. 2018), we demonstrate the possibility for using magnetic induction to identify where the ocean currently resides in Callisto. Anderson, J. D. et al. (2001). Shape, mean radius, gravity field, and interior structure of Callisto. Icarus, 153(1):157–161. Choblet, G. et al. (2017). Heat transport in the high-pressure ice mantle of large icy moons. Icarus, 285:252–262. Kalousovà, K. and Sotin, C. (2018). Melting in high-pressure ice layers of large ocean worlds - implications for volatiles transport. Geophysical Research Letters. McKinnon, W. (2006). On convection in ice I shells of outer solar system bodies, with detailed application to Callisto. Icarus, 183(2):435–450. Moore, et al. (2004). Callisto. Jupiter. The Planet, Satellites and Magnetosphere, 1:397–426. Moore, J. and Pappalardo, R. (2011). Titan: An exogenic world? Icarus, 212:790–806. Vance, S. D. et al. (2018). Geophysical investigations of habitability in ice-covered ocean worlds. Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 123, 180–205.

The Khumbu Icefall lies at an approximate altitude of 5,500 meters on the Nepali side of Mt. Everest and is one of the most dangerous stages of the major South Col route to the summit. In the Khumbu Icefall, seracs, or ridges on the surface of a glacier, are known to collapse unexpectedly, displacing massive volumes of ice down the Khumbu Glacier, estimated to advance 0.9 to 1.2 m down the mountain every day. Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) uniquely enables a next generation of remote sensing capabilities that offer a persistent, all-weather, day/night, complete characterization of the Earth and its dynamic surface changes. Using open C-band SAR data from the Sentinel-1 satellite constellation, ice dynamics can be reliably tracked at an approximately bi-monthly cadence over the past five years. The C-band instrument is nearly unaffected by cloud cover as it is not significantly attenuated by water vapor, making it incredibly useful for time-sensitive and temporal analysis such as tracking ice volumes, especially in regions under heavy cloud cover for roughly half of the year. Also, the Radar signal can be unwrapped to create phase history data to unlock information about the movement of objects in the scene. We demonstrate the use of this complex data to perform very accurate measurements of 3D change across the glacier and to extract two dimensional (azimuth and range directions) glacier surface velocities through the use of SAR speckle tracking. By enhancing 3D static geospatial data in the form of 3D high-resolution surface models with dynamic SAR information in 4D (3D + time) we additionally demonstrate a unique approach for more effective multi-temporal analysis and 3D change detection. We fuse the enhanced SAR open data with commercial 3D surface models to build a temporal stack of imagery over the Khumbu region and track changes in volume over time and their corresponding velocities. We showcase our analysis using 3D renderings of SAR fused data and SAR derived analytics for enhanced interpretability of the results. This data-driven time series coupled with geophysics principles can lead to significant research advances in studying glacier loss or retreat, ice thinning, or forecasting probabilistic ice motion to better prepare expeditions.

The growth of biofilms changes the hydrodynamics of porous media, which will influence the transport of bacteria and contaminants in natural and engineered systems. Traditionally, biofilms have been modeled as an impermeable domain in porous media, such that no water can enter biofilms and contaminants can only enter biofilms via molecular diffusion. Such a modeling approach is based on the assumption that the permeability of biofilms is the same as that of Extracellular Polymeric Substances (EPS), which are considered to have very low permeability. In this study, we investigate the impacts of biofilm properties on water flow using microfluidic device experiments and pore-scale modeling. E. coli biofilm was established inside a microfluidic channel packed with unisized glass beads in a single layer. A 5*5 mm2 area was live-stained and imaged via confocal microscopy at three different growth stages to represent three biofilm levels in the system. After image analysis using FIJI and AutoCAD software, the flow in the bio-clogged porous media was simulated using COMSOL Multiphysics. In these simulations, biofilm was modeled as a separate permeable domain in porous media instead of an impermeable domain. A Forchheimer-corrected version of the Brinkman equations was applied to simulate the flow in the porous biofilm regions. Two properties of biofilms, namely biofilm porosity (BPO) and biofilm permeability (BPE), were altered to examine their effects on the permeability of the system. It was found that different values of BPO and BPE clearly affect the flow paths, velocity patterns, and permeability of the system. Considering biofilms as impermeable results in significant underestimations of the flow properties. In addition, two simplified modeling scenarios, namely uniform coating and symmetric contact filling, were investigated for a possible abridging in the arduous modeling procedure of the real biofilm geometry.

In subduction zones, megathrust seismicity depends on the hydrogeological, physical and mechanical properties of sediments before they enter the subduction zone and how these properties evolve through the subduction process. In particular, fluids are progressively released by compaction and/or mineral dehydration reactions as burial increases, resulting in the build-up of pore fluid pressure in low-permeability sediments that strongly affects fault behavior through its control on effective normal stress. Thus, characterizing the compaction state and bound water content of sediments in subduction systems is crucial. During IODP Expedition 372 and 375, Site U1518 was drilled in the frontal wedge of the Northern Hikurangi margin ~6.5 km west of the deformation front. This site penetrated an active thrust fault, the Papaku fault, its hanging wall and uppermost footwall. The Papaku fault, intersected at ~304 meters below sea floor, is a westward-dipping splay fault which is thought to lie in the SSE rupture area, to host SSEs and to have accommodated several kilometers of shortening within the prism. It is composed of a ~18m-thick main fault zone with a mixture of brittle and ductile structures and ductile features locally overprinted by brittle fractures and faults. Below, there are a ~21m-thick zone of gradually decreasing brittle-ductile deformation and a ~10m-thick subsidiary fault zone. The folded, faulted and pervasively fractured hanging wall corresponds to Early-Mid Pleistocene hemipelagic silty-claystone with fine-grained turbidites sequences. The footwall is composed by relatively undeformed Mid-Late Pleistocene bioturbated hemipelagic mudstones with turbidites sequences. We use IODP expeditions 372-375 and post-cruise porosity, logging and chemical data to characterize the porosity of sediments at Site U1518, including interstitial porosity, bound water content and fracture porosity. Interstitial porosity is obtained by correcting total porosity measured onboard accounting for clay-mineral bound water using Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC). Unlike total porosity measured onboard, interstitial porosity is representative of the compaction state of sediments. To better characterize interstitial porosity, we document the evolution of the structure of meso- to macropores with depth using mercury injection capillary pressure and low-field nuclear magnetic resonance. We assess the compaction state of sediments at Site U1518 by comparing the interstitial porosity-effective vertical stress curve with that of equivalent siliciclastic units at Site U1520. This site sampled and logged the undeformed input sedimentary section and the top of the oceanic crust ~95 km from shore. We show that the hanging-wall of the Papaku thrust fault is overconsolidated whereas the footwall is normally consolidated. Finally, we discuss deformation history of sediments during accretion regarding the compaction profile and the deformation structures observed at Site U1518.

Changes in the heavy ion composition in the terrestrial ionosphere and magnetosphere can have significant impact on particle dynamics in the Earth’s magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Most instruments flying in space, such as MMS and Van Allen Probes, lack the possibility to distinguish N+ from O+ due to their close masses. However, observations of N+ both in the ionosphere and magnetosphere indicate that N+ is a constant companion of O+ , especially during the storm time. Because N+ originates from the Earth’s ionosphere, we further develop the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM) to investigate the behavior and acceleration mechanisms of heavy ions in Earth’s ionosphere. The PWOM solves the particle dynamics of O+, H+ and He+ in the ionospheric outflow and the modified PWOM can further simulate the behavior of N+ and N2+ in Earth’s polar wind. The escape of heavy ions from the Earth atmosphere is consequences of energization and transport mechanisms, including photo ionization, electron precipitation, ion-electron-neutral chemistry and collisions. The modified PWOM is coupled with a two-stream model of superthermal electrons (GLobal airglow, or GLOW) to deal with attenuated radiation, electron beam energy dissipation, and secondary electron impact. In this study, we show that during various solar conditions, the ion-electron-neutral densities in the ionospheric outflow show significant difference when we consider N+ ions in the polar wind. Furthermore, we will compare the simulation results of the modified PWOM with observation data for validation.

Up-to-date information about vegetation types and hydromorphological structures and features are essential for the management of waterways. They are e.g. used for the monitoring and reporting of riparian statuses and their changes e.g. after river restoration and consequently, numerous man-days are spent on field surveys. To allow for an effective survey of vegetation and hydromorphology in large or even inaccessible areas, a data acquisition and processing workflow is being developed complementing in-situ methods with remote sensing techniques. This is part of the joint research project “mDRONES4rivers” funded by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (19F2054A). Aerial surveys by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and a gyrocopter are combined with ground measurements of hyperspectral reflectance signatures as well as with field mapping of vegetation types and hydromorphological structures and features. The remote sensing data is classified with an object based image analysis and classification algorithm. The mobile and (at selected sites) permanent measurements of hyperspectral field data and the typical field surveys provide data for calibration. Contrary to other approaches that focus on what can be detected and classified with certain sensor systems and datasets, the project addresses equally the user needs to obtain certain classes for monitoring and reporting. The intended results are (i) data acquisition, correction and classification workflow combining remote sensing and field data, identification and change detection (ii) of important vegetation and biotope types and (iii) of hydromorphological structures and substrate as well as indicators necessary for the evaluation of the hydromorphological quality. The preliminary results to be presented include datasets from UAS, gyrocopter, and field surveys, an outline of processing workflow and classification algorithm based on Python scripts and eCognition software and first vegetation and hydromorphological classification results from spring and summer datasets. In conclusion, procedures and algorithms are developed to use remote sensing in combination with and for the reduction of time-consuming traditional field surveys as a future operational tool for monitoring riparian vegetation and structures.

Electromagnetic waves propagating through the Earth’s ionosphere are subjected to changes in group and phase velocities, refraction, dispersion, and diffraction. For systems like GPS, which relies on the usage of L-band signals, rapid and random fluctuations in the phase and amplitude (known as scintillation) of the signals passing through the ionosphere play a major role, as they may cause losses of lock and result in degrading the accuracy and reliability of such systems. Therefore, understanding the physical nature and ability to predict the scintillation has been a challenge since a long time for engineers and scientists. In this work, a climatological model of rapid random fluctuations in phase and amplitude of GPS signals has been presented for high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The 50Hz GPS raw data from Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) for the 24th solar cycle (2008-2019) have been used to study the climatology of the rapid fluctuations in phase and amplitude of the GPS signals. The statistical analysis has been performed in terms of phase and amplitude scintillation indices (𝜎𝜑 and 𝑆4). The results are presented for different geo- and helio-physical conditions, including solar and geomagnetic activity, season, local time and geographical/geomagnetic location of ionospheric pierce points. For the first time, the distribution of the signal phase and amplitude fluctuations are presented for the whole period of the 24th solar cycle. An important quantitative statistical relation of the phase and amplitude fluctuations in GPS signals have been established for the high latitude region. A theoretical explanation is suggested for the observed differences in phase and amplitude fluctuations.

At regional scales, electrical resistivity illuminates Earth processes involving fluid evolution and transport, temperature contrasts, and fault characteristics and behavior. It also clarifies continental terrane assembly and event sequencing through electronic mineral markers. Magnetotellurics (MT) is sensitive over such scales, but faces high property contrasts, small signals, 3-D complexity, discontinuous fields, and ill-posed inversion. So-called wideband (~0.003 – 500 s wave period) MT recording constrains crustal structure, and high fidelity through its central dead band is routinely achieved now via distant remote referencing, continuous streaming, and outlier removal. To resolve across the upper mantle, long period data must be of high quality through 10,000 s. Electronics modifications now permit good quality MT data over polar ice-covered regions, and non plane wave outliers appear largely avoidable. Regularized 3D non-linear inversion using simulation equations that recognize a spatially discontinuous electric field has become common practice and lends essential credibility to interpretations. However, resistivity model non-uniqueness is seldom tested enough, and assuming isotropic resistivity can lead to artifacts. Fluids interpreted to cause low resistivity in ductile deep crust should be at lithostatic pressures and have compositions compatible with ambient temperature and metamorphic grade. Vertical current channeling enhances resolution of large-scale fault zones connecting deep and shallow structures. Stabilized terranes can exhibit strong, quasi-linear conductors marking belts of graphite or sulfides deposited in sediment-starved foredeeps or rift margin basins, with a particular concentration in the Proterozoic corresponding to atmospheric oxygenation events. An exciting recent avenue is estimating H2O content of nominally anhydrous minerals (NAMs) in the upper mantle, which strongly affects electrical conductivity but not seismic velocity. The large bandwidth of MT data affords a broad-scale, unified view of Earth processes from mantle level sources through crustal storage and evolution to near-surface deposition. Support has been from U.S. Dept of Energy contract DE-0006732 and National Science Foundation grant OPP-1443532, and numerous prior.

Providing accurate forecasts of human modified streamflow is critical for applications ranging from natural resource management to hydropower generation. In this study we evaluate the performance of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) based neural networks, which maintain an internal set of states and are therefore well-suited to modeling dynamical processes. This research builds on previous work demonstrating that an LSTM model can predict streamflow in out of sample basins with similar or greater accuracy than traditional forecast models specifically calibrated on those basins [1]. Using meteorological data from NOAA’s Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), remote sensing data including snow cover, vegetation and surface temperature from NASA’s MODIS sensors and streamflow data from USGS, we first train an LSTM model on 100 unmodified river basins, and evaluate its predictions on previously unseen human-altered basins. We then train models on a combination of natural and human modified basins and experiment with the effects of new data sources and additional model architecture in predicting human altered streamflow. By training on multiple basins with dynamic climate, land surface and human inputs, we can test the model’s understanding of general hydrologic relationships and human use patterns. We evaluate our models on “out of sample” rivers (previously unseen by the model) that have been altered by dam operations and agricultural withdrawals in northern California. We find that the models trained on natural and modified basins capture human modified flows better than our baseline model trained on natural basins. [1] Kratzert, F., Klotz D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S. & Nearing, G. Benchmarking a Catchment-Aware Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) for Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling. Preprint at https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.08456 (2019)

The 2015-16 El Nino had a record-breaking impact on the Amazon rainforest, with the region experiencing extremes of heat and drought. We study the impact of the 2015 drought on the water dynamics in a central Amazonian tropical rainforest using field observations of soil moisture, sap flow, and net radiation among other micrometeorological variables collected at the BR-Ma2 tower (Manaus - ZF2 K34 tower) site. We use these data to look for quantitative and mechanistic relationships between soil moisture, plant transpiration, and precipitation over tropical rainforest. We further study the physiological drivers that control plant transpiration during the drought and in a normal year. Here we present quantifications of precipitation, soil water usage, and plant transpiration during and after the 2015 drought, and characterizations of the impacts of the 2015 drought on ecosystem water processes such as plant transpiration and soil water usage.

As the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System is launched along the West Coast, how will this change the situational awareness and preparation actions of individuals who live and work in this region? This presentation describes the preliminary findings from a qualitative research study investigating the processes individuals who live and work near coastal Oregon experience as they develop earthquake and tsunami readiness and preparedness. This study provides a current snapshot before a local EWS is available. Getting ready and preparing to respond to natural hazards involves many layers of society from federal to individual efforts. When the natural hazard is a sudden-onset event with a high potential impact, such as an earthquake and tsunamis, many interoperating social, governmental, technical, and scientific systems are needed before the event occurs to prepare and create resilient communities and individuals who can thrive post-event. For individuals, very different types of actions are needed to become prepared before, to respond during, and to survive long-term from an earthquake and subsequent tsunamis. The Oregon Office of Emergency Management currently recommends that everyone should be prepared for two weeks if a major 8.5+ magnitude earthquake hits Oregon; for coastal communities, local agencies recommend closer to four weeks of supplies. This study has been investigating the processes jobholders and residents of coastal Oregon describe as they’ve actively prepared for earthquake and tsunami hazards. During these discussions, they are providing insight into what has encouraged and created obstacles to actively preparing for the eventual subduction earthquake and subsequent tsunamis. This presentation will share the progress of this project and suggestions for future research after ShakeAlert is implemented.

As a multi-year coding in the classroom initiative, the Earth Science Information Partners’ education committee and community members have been exploring how to integrate coding skills and computational thinking within an Earth science context. This presentation describes a Jupyter notebook project that resulted in a professional development Data to Action Education Workshop during the ESIP 2019 Summer Meeting in Tacoma, Washington. The main goal of the workshop was to provide K-12 teacher participants the opportunity to learn how modify and run code that would display and analyze data about hurricanes in the Atlantic basin using a Jupyter Notebook. The topic was chosen for two specific reasons. Middle- and high- school Earth Science curricula include a learning unit about weather, particularly hurricanes, as a topic of instruction thus the content could be a natural fit into most classrooms. Secondly, employing a familiar content area in a coding-dedicated workshop meant that teachers could focus on the code itself and bring their knowledge about hurricanes to create new questions to explore. Workshop participants included in-service teachers currently instructing in middle and/or high school geoscience or technology courses, most of whom had very little or no background in programming. Teachers became familiar with the Jupyter environment, gained experience in interpreting coding cell content, and built confidence in manipulating code and parameters to develop graphical outputs. Through merging coding practice applied to learning instructional content, teachers were able to experiment and succeed (or fail) in a safe environment, practicing the skills their students need to learn. By encouraging teachers to learn how to code, we help them to foster their students curiosity to be creators, more than just consumers, of the technology around us and develop skills paramount to be career- and college-ready. We discuss the pedagogical and technical approaches and lessons learned through the design, development, implementation, and evaluation phases of this project.

Magnetic reconnection is responsible for the major reconfigurations of the magnetosphere that lead to energy transport and deposition into the ionosphere. The fast rate at which magnetic energy is converted to plasma kinetic energy is likely enabled by the polarization Hall electric field that results from the separation of ions and electrons at small scales. Signatures of Hall fields have played a key role in identifying and studying reconnection, but the density of accumulated charge has not been quantified. We use the 4-point measurements of the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission to compute the divergence of the electric field and present the first observations of charge density in the diffusion region of magnetic reconnection. We show how it ties into the Hall system, discuss measurement uncertainties, analyze quality estimates, and make comparisons to 2D simulations. Charge density is briefly presented for other phenomena, and ranges from 2% or less of the background plasma density for magnetic reconnection and electron-scale magnetic holes and peaks to upwards of 4% for electron phase space holes.

Watersheds are complex systems with multiple interactions between physical processes and human-induced socio-economic dynamics. Since the 2000s, numerous flooding and mudslide events have affected the territory in Normandy (France), leading to significant damages. Therefore, a public policy was adopted with the aim to reduce runoff and erosion, it includes: (i) the building of 4,000 hydraulic infrastructures (dams, fascines, hedges, etc.), (ii) the creation of turbidity water-treatment plants and, (iii) the conduction of animation and protection programs on soil and water resources. These investments are co-funded by several local authorities. This original research project aims evaluating the effectiveness of the above-mentioned public policy. Therefore, two complementary approaches are applied: (i) at the regional scale, the investments and damages between 2000 and 2017 were assessed and, (ii) for a pilot small scaled watershed (la Lézarde, 212 km²) a coupled modeling was conducted, taking hydro-sedimentary processes (flood envelopes, diffuse and concentrated erosion, karstic transfers) and associated socio-economic dynamics into account. Our results suggest that over the study period, at the regional scale 500 M\euro were invested to reduce erosion/runoff impacts and, 300 M\euro of damage were caused. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the public policy since 2000s must be evaluated at the watershed scale using a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) according to two main scenarios: S1 = pre-development (2000), and S2 = post-development (2017). The processes that govern the surface transfer are modeled for different design floods (Q10-50-100) coupling two semi-dynamic models (MikeSHE and Watersed), and the karstic transfer using a deep learning algorithm (Tensorflow). Additionally, three long-term scenarios (until 2050) are modeled taking into account the effects of climate change (RCP scenarios), the change in land use (-33% of grassland areas), and the modification of agricultural practices that limit runoff. These projections provide key elements for decision-makers to guide future public policies controlling runoff and erosion in this territory.

The world has changed, and the role and responsibilities of scientists have changed as a consequence. Not only is there an increasingly urgent need for scientifically informed multi-scale responses to the global problems we face, but there is also a need to address to the obstructive attitudes toward evidence accumulated and presented through scientific activities. What skills will allow future scientists to continue extending the frontiers of knowledge, to cooperate in response to the wicked problems we face, and negotiate the complexities of denialism? These questions go to the very heart of what it means, and is likely to mean in future, to be a scientist. This in turn goes to the heart of the educational process that will deliver graduates able to address these conundrums. The implications of these considerations will be explored from curriculum design, learning outcomes, and pedagogic perspectives. We start by considering the value of longitudinal curricula, problem based learning approaches and authentic assessment strategies. We demonstrate the utility of an enhanced graduate profile framework as a tool for planning educational interventions across the scales at which they occur -- institution, programme, module, session and individual learner. Based on our experiences in formal teaching, informal student support, and research training at both undergraduate and post-graduate levels, we will reflect on the value of such an approach to science education in this brave new post-truth world.