The enormous groundwater demand globally have possessed a threat to groundwater security. Rajasthan being one of the water deficit states of India is pivotal to determine its groundwater potential zone for sustainability. Diverse thematic layers such as drainage density, landuse, rainfall, geology, geomorphology was prepared. The geomorphology, landuse, drainage and soil map was prepared using IRS-1D LISSІІІ satellite image. Through, appointing the relative weightage to the thematic maps the final groundwater potential map was prepared. A comparative analysis for the groundwater potential map and the groundwater level data was done for confirmation. The groundwater potential zone can be classified as high, medium or low. The positions of various existing wells along with the contour map of groundwater table can be draped with groundwater potential map. The groundwater table usually found flat over the regions of higher groundwater potential zones. Thus, with the increasing demography along with rising demand the wells should be laid over the area with higher potential. The remote sensing and GIS can be efficiently and smoothly used to determine the groundwater potential zones with suitable sites for well construction. Keywords: Groundwater sustainability, Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System, Thematic layers, Groundwater potential map.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a diverse range of both direct and indirect impacts on health (both physical and mental), the economy, and the environment. The relevant data sources used to inform pandemic-related decisions have been similarly diverse, though decision-makers have primarily relied upon data sets from non-satellite sources such as traditional public health data. As we move from initial crisis response to more long-term management, there is both an interest and a need for considering a wider diversity of data sources and impacts. It is difficult for any person to absorb and respond strategically to the broad sets of data that are relevant to the issues regarding COVID management. To address this, the authors propose a five part, integrated data visualization and modeling framework entitled the Vida Decision Support System. The goal of Vida is to create an accessible and openly available online platform that can be customized by the leadership team for a city or region and bring together knowledge from several areas of expertise. The five components of Vida, each of which serve to model a specific domain, include Public Health, Environment, Socio-economic Impacts, Public Policy, and Technology. This framework is currently being designed and evaluated with collaborators in Angola, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Mexico and the United States. The environmental data comes from sources such as in-situ sensors and both civil and commercial earth observation instruments (Landsat, VIIRS, Planet Labs’ PlanetScope, etc.) to track factors such as water quality, forest extent and health, air quality, human mobility, and nighttime urban lighting. Similarly, socioeconomic data derives from both in-situ sources, such as local statistical agencies, and from satellite products, such as those hosted by NASA’s Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. The authors discuss the value provided by this framework to each of the collaborators, the process used to apply the framework to each local context, and future possibilities for Vida. Even though Vida was first developed and applied in response to COVID-19, it has applications in other public health contexts where policy, environment, and socio-economic impacts are closely tied.

Recently, Zhou (2022) reported temporal change of seismic velocity in the Earth’s outer core based on relative travel time differences of SKS phase between some “doublets”. The study further suggested existence of a possible 2-3% density deficit in the outer core and a localized transient flow with a speed of ~40 km/year. We examine the seismic data of the best-quality “doublet” (event pair 19970503-20180910) reported in the study. We relocate the “doublet” based on a master-event relocation method (Wen , 2006) using the seismic data of the compressional waves that travel outside the outer core, including P or Pdiff , pP or pPdiff , pPn, PP or Pdiff Pdiff , and PcP waves recorded at the global seismographic network. The later event (20180910) is found to be located 14.20 km away, 204.33°NW, of the earlier event (19970503) with a source depth 1.45 km deeper. After correction for the effects of relative source location and origin time, SKS signals exhibit no discernable relative travel time differences between the two events at the frequency band ≥0.2 Hz at all the four most anomalous stations (COLA, INK, ULN, YAK) reported in Zhou (2022). However, SPdKS-SKPdS phases, which start bifurcating from the SKS phases at the distance range of those four reported anomalous stations, exhibit evident changes of waveform and travel time between the events. The “SKS signals” used inZhou (2022), which had a 50-s time window and were filtered from 0.01-0.05 Hz, contain signals of SKS and SPdKS-SKPdS phases. It is the changes of SPdKS-SKPdS phases, not that of SKS phases, that generate the apparent time shift in the low-frequency filtered “SKS signals” reported in Zhou (2022). The SPdKS-SKPdS phases of those reported anomalous stations sample a lowermost mantle region populated with ultra-low velocity zones (ULVZs). The separation of the two events is large and the SPdKS-SKPdS phases would sample ULVZs with slightly different paths between the two events, yielding different waveform and travel time (Wen & Helmberger , 1998). We conclude that there is no observable temporal change of seismic properties in the Earth’s outer core in the seismic data used in Zhou (2022) and the reported relative travel time difference in the “SKS signals” in Zhou(2022) is caused by waveform and relative travel time changes in SPdKS-SKPdS phases due to slightly different sampling paths to the ULVZs at the bottom of the mantle between the events.

Clouds in the tropical western Pacific are dominated by reflective deep convective cores with gradually thinning trailing anvil clouds, which play a crucial role in determining tropical cloud radiative effects. The microphysical controls of the thinning process and its changes when subjected to a future warmer climate are still very uncertain.We use the high resolution version of the Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to study the thinning process in present day and future climate. We apply Lagrangian forward trajectories starting at peaks of convective activity of the detected mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and track detrained ice crystals to better understand the processes controlling the transition of a thick detrained anvil cloud into a thin cirrus cloud. The trajectories are computed offline from the 1-hourly model-calculated velocity fields and ice crystal sedimentation velocities. The modeled MCS in present day climate have a comparable time evolution to those observed by Himawari geostationary satellite data, with an average lifetime of about 10-15 hours, which accounts only for the optically thick part of the cold cloud shield. However, E3SM fails to simulate the strongest storms, which is reflected by an underestimation of albedo and overestimation of outgoing longwave radiation. The analysis of ice sources (detrainment, vapor deposition, new nucleation events) and sinks (sublimation, aggregation, sedimentation) along trajectories highlights the crucial role of the balance between depositional growth and precipitation formation for the maintenance of aging anvil clouds. Interestingly, deposition of ice on detrained ice crystals contributes to the majority of the upper tropospheric ice mass. On the other hand, about 80% of the initial cloud mass is removed in the form of precipitation within the first 10 hours of the detrainment event, changing its radiative effect from net negative to net positive. The future climate simulation shows an increase in storm frequency and intensity, an increase in ice water content and albedo in convective cores and thick anvils. The trajectory calculations reveal a 15% decrease in cloud lifetime due to climate change, suggesting a decrease in thin high clouds due to a higher precipitation efficiency and a shift to more negative net cloud radiative effects.

In-situ and above water radiometers are a critical for validating Ocean Color Satellite measurements, used to monitor in-water constituents of the global ocean. The calibration process, instrument response characterization, and environmental measurement all contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of the radiometric measurement. An integral part of this uncertainty traceability chain is accurate laboratory calibration of radiometric sensors. Over its lifetime, the Sea-Bird Scientific Halifax site (formerly Satlantic, LP) participated in inter-laboratory comparisons to ensure the quality of its calibrations. These include: NASA’s Seventh SeaWIFS Intercalibration Round-Robin Experiment (SIRREX-7, Hooker et al. 2002), conducted in 1999, compared Halifax to the Center for Hydro-Optics and Remote Sensing (CHORS, San Diego State University, California, USA) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC, Ispra, Italy). More recently, Sea-Bird Scientific participated in the European Space Agency (ESA) sponsored Fiducial Reference Measurements for Satellite Ocean Colour (FRM4SOC) program. In 2017, Sea-Bird Scientific transitioned the manufacturing and calibration of radiometric products from the facility located in Halifax (HAL), Nova Scotia CA to the facility located in Philomath (PHI), Oregon USA (formerly WET Labs, Inc.). As part of this transition, the radiometer calibration facility was reproduced at the Philomath site and Sea-Bird Scientific conducted an extensive cross facility set of experiments to: 1. Quantify relative calibration uncertainties within and between Halifax and Philomath laboratories; 2. Quantify differences in repeatability relative to Halifax (established standard); 3. Compare relative laboratory calibration uncertainties to budget of estimated uncertainty sources; 4. Verify successful transfer of build and calibration processes at Philomath site.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is one of the key staple crops worldwide. Even though future demand for wheat is estimated to increase by 6% by 2050, wheat production might drop by 30% due to climate change. The purpose of this research is to identify canopy architecture (light capture) and anatomical (stomatal) traits that significantly increase radiation use efficiency (RUE; dry weight biomass produced per unit radiation intercepted) and improve yield under high temperature and drought stress conditions due to the growing concern over food security. This research was conducted with five contrasting wheat genotypes in a new field-based high tunnel system with 4 treatments and three replications (control, heat stress, drought stress and heat x drought stress with 3 replications = 12 tunnels) in a randomized completed block design with stress applied at the heading stage. Canopy architecture was graded according to the visual scoring scale concerning UPOV and RUE was calculated in three growth stages. New techniques of high throughput imaging of stomatal number and size using a handheld digital microscope will also be presented.

The potential and practicality of offshore geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) subsea storage is being explored through a Department of Energy (DOE) supported project entitled “Southeast Regional Carbon Storage Partnership: Offshore Gulf of Mexico” (SECARB Offshore). SECARB Offshore supports the DOE’s long-term objective to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the potential to implement offshore CO2 subsea storage in all Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program Planning areas in the GOM. As an estimated 40% of U.S. anthropogenic CO2 emissions are generated in the southeast, with a large portion of these emissions generated within 100 km of the coastline, the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a prime target for this type of storage. The project team has been assembling the knowledge base required for secure, long-term, large-scale CO2 subsea storage in the GOM with or without CO2 enhanced hydrocarbon recovery (CO2-EOR). The project team has confirmed that the storage potential in Cretaceous and Tertiary reservoirs in the eastern GOM is vast (e.g., ~1,000 Mt potential storage in the DeSoto Canyon Salt Basin alone). With the significant infrastructure already in place, abundant stacked saline formations, and depleted oil and gas reservoirs, the eastern GOM is an attractive prospect. However, offshore subsea CO2 storage has different challenges with respect to project development; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA); and outreach as compared to onshore CO2 storage. Thus, a significant effort moving forward will be surrounding education and outreach to facilitate engagement with stakeholders in potential CO2 storage in the offshore GOM. Such materials will describe the potential for CO2 storage in the offshore GOM, highlight the environmental and economic benefits that could accrue to the Gulf Coast region in pursuing this potential, characterize the risks associated with this pursuit, and document how offshore CO2 storage is currently being pursued effectively globally. The efforts need to be tailored for specific stakeholders – for example, commercial and recreational fishing industries may have different concerns than government officials – to be effective.

The next decades of space exploration will focus on Ocean Worlds – especially Europa, Enceladus, and Titan – whose liquid oceans beneath kilometers of icy crust are some of the most likely locations beyond Earth to harbor life. NASA is developing numerous ocean-access mission concepts, including the Scientific Exploration Subsurface Access Mechanism for Europa (SESAME) class of drilling robots to penetrate the ice and access these aquatic environments. We propose developing SWIM – Sensing with Independent Micro-swimmers – to dramatically expand the capabilities of SESAME-class ocean-access robotic missions and significantly increase their likelihood of detecting evidence of habitability / biomarkers / life once they reach the ocean-ice interface. SWIM consists of dozens of ~100 cm3 scale, swimming micro-robots (micro-swimmers) equipped with MEMS sensors, propelled by miniature actuators, and wirelessly controlled with ultrasound. The micro-swimmers are deployed individually or as a swarm from a single SESAME robot mothercraft, which has limited mobility once reaching / anchoring at the ocean-ice interface. SWIM enables active sampling of ocean water beyond the reach of the SESAME robot (increasing the chances of detecting biomarkers), as well as temporally- and spatially-distributed measurement of desired ocean properties, habitability metrics, and potential biomarkers (infeasible with a single robot).

Shortages of electricity in Colombia associated with droughts during El Niño-Southern Oscillation warm events lead government to seek diversification of the electricity matrix, which is mainly hydro (66%). Additionally, clean technologies like wind and solar power are alternatives to climate change. Potentially, solar radiation is high year-round in Colombia due to its low latitude, but clouds are the most critical limiting factor. In this paper, we measure and analyze the variations in efficiency resulting from different weather variables. Toward that end, we measure three photovoltaic systems located in three different zones of the valley. Simultaneously, we analyzed some of the limiting factors which influence solar radiation. For that, we consider radiation from 3 pyranometers, air temperature and relative humidity from meteorological sensors, water vapor density, liquid and solid water content from a microwave radiometer, reflectances as a proxy of clouds from GOES 16 satellite visible band 2. To identify clouds, we estimated radiance thresholds for the GOES information in the three locations of interest from changes in the surface radiation data. These thresholds provide identification of the most sensible hours for radiation based on the anomalies of the radiation under cloudiness conditions. Lastly, the efficiencies on each location were calculated considering the power data, as a proportion of the horizontal global radiation and the area of each solar panel.

One of the next giant leaps for humanity—inhabiting our neighbor planet Mars—requires enough water to support multi-year human survival and to create rocket fuel for the nearly 150-million-mile return trip to Earth. Water that is already on Mars, in the form of ice, is one of the leading in situ resources being considered in preparation for human exploration. Human missions will need to land in locations with relatively warm temperatures and consistent sunlight. But in these locations, ice (if present) is buried underground. Much of the ice known to exist in mid-latitude locations was likely emplaced under climate conditions (and orbital parameters) different from today. So in addition to providing an in-situ resource for human exploration, Martian ice also provides a crucial record of planetary climate change and the effects of orbital forcing.This presentation will highlight techniques and recent activities to characterize Mars’ underground ice, such as the Subsurface Water Ice Mapping (SWIM) Project (Morgan et al. 2021, Nature Astro.; Putzig et al. In Press, Handbook of Space Resources; Putzig et al. this AGU; Morgan et al. this AGU). We present outstanding questions that will be vital to address in the context of ISRU (in situ resource utilization) and connections between these questions and the climate in which the ice was emplaced and evolved (e.g., Bramson et al. 2020, Decadal White Paper). Lastly, we discuss how these science activities intersect with future exploration, particularly that enabled by collaborations between space agencies as well as industry partners (Heldmann et al. 2020, Decadal White Paper; Golombek et al. 2021, LPSC).High-priority future work includes better orbital characterization of shallow ice deposits, such as radar sounding at shallower scales (<~10m) than that of SHARAD, as proposed for the International Mars Ice Mapper. Also needed are detailed studies of the engineering required to build potential settlements at specific candidate locations; this includes characterization of the nature of the overburden above the ice, which will inform future resource extraction technology development efforts. Ideally, initial landing sites would be chosen with a long-term vision which includes preparation and development of the basic technologies and designs needed for human landing on Mars.

One of the prominent effects of space weather is the variation of electric currents in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, which give rise to rapid geomagnetic field variations on the surface of the Earth. These Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMDs) can be highly localized and large amplitude. Because the causes of localized GMDs are unresolved, we seek to identify the physical drivers of these localized dB/dt spikes measured by ground magnetometers. We use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) models to simulate the magnetosphere and reproduce these small-scale spikes. We use the operational Geospace configuration, which couples a global magnetohydrodynamic model to a height-integrated ionospheric electrodynamics solver and a kinetic ring current model. We run a series of simulations with increasingly higher spatial resolution to resolve small scale dB/dt dynamics. We quantify the success of the model against observation using Regional Station Difference (RSD), a metric calculated using dB/dt or geoelectric field to pinpoint when a single magnetometer station records a significantly different value than others within a given radius. We discuss future work to improve the model’s accuracy and our understanding of these small-scale structures.

Reconstructing thermal histories in thrust belts using thermochronometry is a widely used method to infer the age and rates of thrusting, a precondition to understanding the driving mechanisms of orogenesis. Along a thrust sheet, the time and temperature conditions at the switch between heating and cooling retrieved from thermal modeling are commonly interpreted as the onset of thrust-induced exhumation associated with thrustbelt development. In subduction orogens such as the Andes, this interpretation can be challenged by the intrinsic changes in basal heat flow imposed by changes in subduction regimes. We document a case in the northwestern Sierras Pampeanas in the Argentinean Central Andes in which independent constraints on the onset late Cenozoic thrusting derived from structural cross-cutting relationships allow us to explore alternative causes for Cenozoic cooling signals. Located at ~31°S Lat, the Villa Unión-Ischigualasto basin hosts a composite stratigraphic record associated with Triassic rifting developed onto the Paleozoic substratum of western Gondwana and the overlying Meso-Cenozoic foreland basin record. A multi-method approach including apatite fission-track, apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He analyses, vitrinite reflectance and clay mineralogy carried out along three stratigraphic profiles, and inverse thermal modeling reveals the thermal history patterns and allows inferring its triggering mechanisms. Despite an up to 5 km-thick Cenozoic overburden and unlike previously thought, the thermal peak in the basin is not due to Cenozoic burial but occurred in the Triassic, associated with an abnormally high heat flow of up to 90 mWm-2 and less than 2 km of burial, which heated the base of the Triassic strata to ~160°C. Following exhumation, attested by the development of an unconformity between the Triassic and Late-Cretaceous-Cenozoic sequences, Cenozoic re-burial increased the temperature to ~110°C at the base of the Triassic section and only ~50°C 4 km upsection, suggesting a dramatic decrease in the thermal gradient. The onset of Cenozoic cooling from those conditions occurred between ~10 and 8 Ma, approximately 5 My before the onset of thrusting that has been independently documented by exceptionally well preserved stratigraphic-cross-cutting relationships. We argue that the onset of cooling is associated with lithospheric refrigeration following a decrease in the angle of subduction of the Nazca slab, leading to the eastward displacement of the asthenospheric wedge beneath the South American plate. Our study places time and temperature constraints on an idea that has been previously discussed in the region and calls for a careful interpretation of exhumation signals in thrustbelts inferred from thermochronology only.

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs), or septic tank systems, are commonly used throughout the United States and are generally effective at remediating wastewater. However, malfunctioning OWTSs can introduce excess nutrients (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorous) and pathogens (i.e., E. coli) into the environment. There is increasing evidence that OWTSs can be a significant, and potentially underestimated, nonpoint source (NPS) of pollution. Thus, the objectives of this research were to (1) develop a model to assess the pollution potential from OWTSs using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) and (2) evaluate the relationship between the pollution potential from OWTSs and water pollutants. This study was completed in the Choccolocco Creek watershed, Alabama. The main tributary in this watershed, the Choccolocco Creek, is an impaired waterbody due to elevated E. coli concentrations. An MCDA was developed to model the pollution potential from OWTSs using environmental and OWTS variables. Similarly, an OWTS site unsuitability analysis, that only included environmental variables, was used to predict where OWTS may poorly perform, if OWTS data are not accessible in other areas. Water samples were taken along Choccolocco Creek to measure nitrogen, phosphorous, and E. coli concentrations. Pollutant concentrations were correlated to modeled pollution potential from OWTSs and OWTS site unsuitability, to compare how the exclusion of OWTS data changes the results. Additionally, land cover distribution was correlated to pollutant concentrations to account for other potential NPSs of water pollution. All water pollutants were significantly, positively correlated to OWTS count. Additionally, E. coli and nitrogen concentrations were significantly, positively correlated to pollution potential from OWTSs. This suggests that OWTSs may contribute to water pollution within the watershed. Furthermore, the location of areas most probable to have OWTS pollution varied between models, highlighting the importance of accounting for OWTSs as a NPS of water pollution. The methods presented could be adapted for other watersheds and used to guide best watershed management practices.

Stories are an essential part of our everyday life, vehicles to understand how the world around us works, both physically and emotionally. They allow us to organise otherwise random facts and events into a cohesive and logical structure, making them easier to understand and remember. Science itself is also full of facts and processes, often seemingly disconnected but that, when put in context, pave the road for scientific discoveries. We propose that classical story-telling strategies can also be used to communicate science to a variety of audiences, specialist and non-specialist alike, and present a few practical examples of how this can be achieved. We focus on what we call the “story circle” narrative structure (see Fig. 1), a distillation of the “Hero’s Journey”(Campbell, 1949; Harmon, 2009). In this storytelling framework, the circle begins with a hero who, posed with a question, chooses to venture beyond their familiar space in a quest for answers. When the hero returns to familiar territory, they have been forever changed by their journey. Firstly, we discuss how this story circle can be directly mapped onto the structure of a research paper, enabling researchers to write up their work in a way that makes it easier to follow for the reader. Then we apply the story circle strategy to a real research example aimed at explaining large-scale mantle convection, in a story where silica is the “hero” who descends into the deep in a subducting slab to then rise back up to the surface in an upwelling plume. This approach to communicating science by exploiting its story-like qualities is key when explaining complex deep Earth processes to the non-academic public who, understandably, can struggle to grasp these concepts due to their abstract nature and detachment from everyday life. Ultimately, the scientific process is an expression of the most fundamental story of humanity – researchers look at the world as it is, see questions that need answering and go on a voyage of discovery to find the answers. When they return, the world has changed because of what was found on that journey. And so the cycle repeats, the circle keeps turning, and the ideas keep changing after every iteration. In science, however, we will never truly write “The End”.

The thermal and chemical structure of the middle atmosphere is determined by molecules of air absorbing high-energy, solar, ultraviolet radiation. The dominant photochemical reaction for forming the stratosphere is dissociation of a molecule of oxygen into two atoms of oxygen. When a molecule is dissociated, the two pieces fly apart at high velocity. Temperature of air is directly proportional to the average velocity of all its molecules and atoms squared. Thus, photochemical dissociation converts bond energy efficiently and completely into air temperature. A molecule of oxygen is dissociated by absorbing ultraviolet-C radiation with frequencies around 1237 terahertz, energies around 5.1 electronvolts. Since oxygen makes up 20.95% of Earth’s atmosphere, there is ample oxygen to absorb all solar ultraviolet-C of appropriate frequencies that reaches the stratosphere, keeping the stratopause 30 to 40 oC warmer than the tropopause. Thus, the stratosphere forms an “electric” blanket warming Earth—electric in the sense that the thermal energy comes from a distant source, Sun, not from the body under the blanket, Earth. The second most important photochemical reaction in the stratosphere is dissociation of ozone by ultraviolet-B radiation with frequencies around 967 terahertz, energies around 4.0 electronvolts. While ozone concentrations, even in the ozone layer, are less than 10 parts per million, ozone is continually being formed and dissociated in the endless ozone-oxygen cycle, absorbing most solar ultraviolet-B radiation. When atoms of chlorine reach the lower stratosphere especially in winter, ozone concentrations that normally increase in winter can be depleted. One atom of chlorine, under the right conditions, can destroy 100,000 molecules of ozone. Depletion of the ozone layer allows more ultraviolet-B radiation than normal to reach Earth. Ultraviolet-B radiation is observed to cause sunburn, cataracts, skin cancer and mutations. It also dissociates ground-level ozone pollution, warming air in populated regions and penetrates oceans more than one hundred meters, very efficiently increasing ocean heat content as observed. Because of the ozone-oxygen cycle, where there are increased concentrations of ozone in the atmosphere, there is increased temperature. Sudden stratospheric warmings of 30-40 oC within days are typically associated with high concentrations of ozone and occur most frequently at altitudes of 30-50 km where dissociation of oxygen and ozone are most efficient. In 1798, Sir Benjamin Thompson proposed the mechanical theory of heat generated by friction when boring canon. This mechanical theory evolved into two fundamental assumptions: 1) heat is a flux of thermal energy measured in watts per square meter and 2) the greater the amount of flux absorbed, the hotter the body will become. Note that this approach never addresses the issue of what heat or thermal energy are, physically. (Complete abstract in poster file.)

Episodes of slow uplift and subsidence of the ground, called bradyseism, characterize the recent dynamics of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). In the last decades two major bradyseismic crises occurred, in 1969/1972 and in 1982/1984, with a ground uplift of 1.70 m and 1.85 m, respectively. Thousands of earthquakes, with a maximum magnitude of 4.2, caused the partial evacuation of the town of Pozzuoli in October 1983. This was followed by about 20 years of overall subsidence, about 1 m in total, until 2005. After 2005 the Campi Flegrei caldera has been rising again, with a slower rate, and a total maximum vertical displacement in the central area of ca. 70 cm. The two signals of ground deformation and background seismicity have been found to share similar accelerating trends. The failure forecast method can provide a first assessment of failure time on present‐day unrest signals at Campi Flegrei caldera based on the monitoring data collected in [2011, 2020] and under the assumption to extrapolate such a trend into the future. In this study, we apply a probabilistic approach that enhances the well‐established method by incorporating stochastic perturbations in the linearized equations. The stochastic formulation enables the processing of decade‐long time windows of data, including the effects of variable dynamics that characterize the unrest. We provide temporal forecasts with uncertainty quantification, potentially indicative of eruption dates. The basis of the failure forecast method is a fundamental law for failing materials: ẇ-α ẅ = A, where ẇ is the rate of the precursor signal, and α, A are model parameters that we fit on the data. The solution when α >1 is a power law of exponent 1/(1 − α) diverging at time Tf , called failure time. In our case study, Tf is the time when the accelerating signals collected at Campi Flegrei would diverge if we extrapolate their trend. The interpretation of Tf as the onset of a volcanic eruption is speculative. It is important to note that future variations of monitoring data could either slow down the increase so far observed, or suddenly further increase it leading to shorter failure times than those here reported. Data from observations at all locations in the region were also aggregated to reinforce the computations of Tf reducing the impact of observation errors.

We performed continuous ramped heating (CRH) on apatites from various tectonic settings and found two major types of 4He outgassing behavior. Apatites with good (U–Th)/He age reproducibility show simple and unimodal incremental gas-release curves that are similar to those predicted by volume diffusion, whereas samples exhibiting greater age dispersion have complex gas-release curves that feature He ‘spikes’ and secondary gas-release peaks deferred to higher temperatures. Age dispersion from the apatites with simple outgassing behavior can be explained by variability in their relative He retentivity observed on Arrhenius arrays—with similar activation energy but different diffusivities, which may be a result of fine-scale crystal imperfections. The observed high-temperature gas component and the resulting “too-old” AHe ages, combined with an attempt at age correction based on secondary peak gas-removal, seem to indicate the existence of sink-like crystal imperfections that can trap 4He both in nature and during laboratory heating. CRH analysis at different heating rates further suggests that the second gas-release peak occurs at varying temperatures, indicating that the sink is kinetically responsive, and if characterizable, may contain additional thermal-history information. These observations suggest that (1) CRH can be deployed as a routine screening tool for (U–Th)/He dating, (2) diffusion of 4He could be complicated by imperfections beyond radiation damage, and (3) if the proposed sinks exist and retain appreciable 4He, there are opportunities to explore additional thermal histories of natural samples.

Astrobiology as a field is not well known by the public, and is a difficult topic to introduce to the those who have never heard of it before. This presentation will showcase projects and experiences from a museum setting to explore how to best bring up such a complex field of science, and how astrobiologists can make their work as digestible as possible to the general public.