Advancing climate change research requires accurate and traceable measurement of the atmospheric longwave irradiance. Current measurement capabilities are limited to an estimated uncertainty of larger than ± 6 W/ m2 using the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). Two independently designed and calibrated absolute radiometers measuring downwelling longwave irradiance were compared during five outdoor comparisons in 2013, 2015, and 2017 at the Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) and the USA-DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM) in the Southern Great Planes (SGP). Two Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometers (ACPs) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and four Integrating Sphere Infrared Radiometers (IRISs) developed by PMOD/WRC took part in these intercomparisons. From the five comparisons, the difference between the irradiance measured by the ACPs and IRISs varied from 0.2 W/ m2 to 2.5 W/ m2 based on the atmospheric conditions, which is within the combined stated uncertainties of ±3 W/ m2. The irradiance measured by the WISG is lower than the average irradiance measured by ACPs and IRISs, magnitude of the difference varied from 0.2 W/m2 to 6.6 W/ m2 depending on the integrated water vapor. A concerted effort at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation Commission (CIMO) Task Team on Radiation References (TT) started during a meeting from November 15 to 17, 2017 in the National Physical Laboratory (NPL), Teddington, United Kingdom to establish a world reference for measuring the atmospheric longwave irradiance with lower uncertainty and with traceability to SI units by using the ACPs and IRISs as the reference.

Simple neutral particle detectors consisting of organic scintillators, sensitive photodetectors, and readout systems have been used to great effect in space- and Earth-based science for observing gamma rays and particle radiation from solar weather, astrophysical phenomena, and even lightning storms on Earth. The calibration of simple gamma ray detectors was improved through kernel density estimation (KDE) in a user-friendly Jupyter notebook running a Python script. When calibrating organic particle detectors, a gamma ray source is applied and the distribution of raw voltages produced by the detector are represented in a histogram including a distinct Compton edge. The location of the edge in the histogram can be associated with the energy of the gamma ray source to convert the histogram of voltage measurements into a representation of the gamma ray energies interacting with the detector. The process of estimating the location of the edge on a histogram of real measurements with imperfect resolution is often done by hand or with a half gaussian fit, but we propose an alternative technique where KDE of the raw voltages replaces the histogram. Using KDE, Gaussian kernels are built up to a representation of the underlying energy distribution which can be easily numerically differentiated. The minimum of the modified distribution identifies the location of the Compton edge, regardless of the resolution of the detector. To demonstrate the technique on a model of a Compton edge, we calculated the theoretical Klein-Nashina Compton distribution of Cesium-137 gamma ray interactions, created a model of the edge with a piecewise 2nd order polynomial, and convolved the piecewise function with a Gaussian to approximate the experimental response. The response was numerically differentiated and the location of the minimum was consistent with the energy of the Compton edge, as the inflection point of the approximated Gaussian distribution occurs at the Compton edge. We also demonstrate the technique with data from a MEGAlib simulation of a simple block particle detector. For projects with repeated adjustment and testing of particle detectors, this method should improve consistency and accuracy of calibration while reducing analysis time.

Saltwater disposal (SWDs) has been linked to the recent increase of earthquakes in various regions of the United States. In some cases, the strong temporal and spatial associations have provided unequivocal evidences to the scientific community that wastewater injection is one of the dominant causal factors to the onset seismicity. In addition, numerous physical models have suggested that the increase in pore pressure from wastewater injection is capable to induce fault slips, providing further physical evidences. Another growing body of literature sorts to rigorously prove causality with statistical analysis where they propose statistical frameworks with parametric regression models to evaluate whether the observed earthquakes were occurring more often than by random chances and tested the statistical significance of the observed occurrences of earthquake to arrive at causal interpretations. We propose causal inference frameworks with the potential outcomes perspective to explicitly define what we meant by causal effect with mathematical formulations and declare necessary assumptions to ensure consistency between models for model comparison. In particular, we put considerations on two common difficulties in raster-based spatial statistical analysis, the spatial correlation, which can be described by Tobler’s first law of geography where near things are more related than distant things, and interference, a causal inference term, where treatments applied to some spatially indexed units affect the outcomes at other spatially indexed units, mostly due to complex physical processes. The study region, the Fort-Worth Basin of North Central Texas, is discretized into non-overlapping grid blocks. The first proposed workflow adopts a cross-sectional study design on aggregated earthquake catalog and injection data where two statistical methods are employed to test the significance of the causal effect between the presence or absence of saltwater disposals and the number of the earthquakes and to estimate the magnitude of the average causal effect. The second proposed workflow incorporates the temporal domain which holds more scientific interests. Finally, the analysis is repeated for different grid configurations to directly assess the sensitivity of statistical results.

Planetary scientists can face challenges in effectively interacting with audiences. To help address their needs, the Lunar and Planetary Institute (LPI) conducts professional development for planetary scientists through seminars and workshops. LPI also enables scientists to participate in public events, and connects them to requests for speakers. LPI’s Sharing Planetary Science seminars include current educational research and incorporate the participants’ own knowledge and experiences in engaging public audiences. Participants attend in-person or online. Post-session surveys indicate that all participants (100%) have found at least one aspect of each seminar valuable. Resulting resources are available online. www.lpi.usra.edu/education/scientist-engagement. In March 2019, working with the Volatiles, Regolith and Thermal Investigations Consortium for Exploration and Science (VORTICES) program, LPI conducted the first Planetary Scientist Engagement Institute. This 2-day training was attended by 23 planetary scientists from across the U.S. who learned about audience needs, common solar system misconceptions, resources for engaging audiences, addressing controversial topics, partnering to reach diverse audiences, and more. In the follow-up evaluation, all (100%) of participants found that the program met their goals and was useful. LPI has conducted a variety of scientist engagement activities at conferences, including sessions and workshops on communicating with audiences, using social media to share their science, and communicating with news media. All have proven popular. LPI hosts a variety of public events, and enables planetary scientists to participate as speakers and as activity facilitators. LPI connects scientists with requests for presentations, both locally and virtually. Future plans include developing a mechanism for evaluating the process and the perceived impact by the scientists. This poster will include further details of these professional development sessions, their resulting resources, the evaluations, and future plans.

C-LIFE is a landed camera suite, suitable for Ocean World surfaces, consisting of a color Context Reconnaissance Stereo Imager and an LED flashlight that can also identify biogenic material through fluorescence. The C-LIFE design leverages ongoing work (with industry partners Space Dynamics Lab, SRI International and Ball Aerospace) from our ICEE-2 and COLDTech awards in low-temperature detector qualification, radiation modeling and mechanical design. It takes advantage of our development work on the Descent Imager for Europa Hazard Avoidance and Radiation Durability (DIEHARD) and camera development on other missions. The C-LIFE camera head is mounted on the Europa Lander’s high gain antenna, which provides tilt and pan capability. Minimal electronics in the camera head control and read out the detector and LEDs. Electronics in the lander vault perform most camera functions and image processing. C-LIFE contains no moving parts. In lieu of a focus mechanism, C-LIFE utilizes high F/number optics and a field of view elongated in the vertical direction with progressive focus from top (infinity e.g. imaging horizon) to bottom (close e.g. imaging sample delivery port). Strip filters (that match Europa Clipper’s Europa Imaging System) on the detectors and partly-overlapping images provide color coverage. Heaters warm C-LIFE to operating temperatures, allowing self-heating to take over, but otherwise the camera is unheated in order to conserve energy. We combine two independent eyes into one mechanical housing (Figure 1) with a dual periscope design, which reduces the mechanical envelope, shielding mass, heating energy and total cabling distance. We use LEDs in three bands to illuminate and to excite fluorescence. Fluorescence excited by these three bands can identify the presence of key metabolic biomarkers and discriminate the quantities of live cells, dead cells and spores in a terrestrial setting. Figure 1. A dual-periscope design, with eyes 20 cm apart, folds optical trains (incoming rays in gray) to mutually shield focal planes. Fold mirrors locate LEDs inside the camera for shielding.

Changes in the heavy ion composition in the terrestrial ionosphere and magnetosphere can have significant impact on particle dynamics in the Earth’s magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Most instruments flying in space, such as MMS and Van Allen Probes, lack the possibility to distinguish N+ from O+ due to their close masses. However, observations of N+ both in the ionosphere and magnetosphere indicate that N+ is a constant companion of O+ , especially during the storm time. Because N+ originates from the Earth’s ionosphere, we further develop the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM) to investigate the behavior and acceleration mechanisms of heavy ions in Earth’s ionosphere. The PWOM solves the particle dynamics of O+, H+ and He+ in the ionospheric outflow and the modified PWOM can further simulate the behavior of N+ and N2+ in Earth’s polar wind. The escape of heavy ions from the Earth atmosphere is consequences of energization and transport mechanisms, including photo ionization, electron precipitation, ion-electron-neutral chemistry and collisions. The modified PWOM is coupled with a two-stream model of superthermal electrons (GLobal airglow, or GLOW) to deal with attenuated radiation, electron beam energy dissipation, and secondary electron impact. In this study, we show that during various solar conditions, the ion-electron-neutral densities in the ionospheric outflow show significant difference when we consider N+ ions in the polar wind. Furthermore, we will compare the simulation results of the modified PWOM with observation data for validation.

The growth of biofilms changes the hydrodynamics of porous media, which will influence the transport of bacteria and contaminants in natural and engineered systems. Traditionally, biofilms have been modeled as an impermeable domain in porous media, such that no water can enter biofilms and contaminants can only enter biofilms via molecular diffusion. Such a modeling approach is based on the assumption that the permeability of biofilms is the same as that of Extracellular Polymeric Substances (EPS), which are considered to have very low permeability. In this study, we investigate the impacts of biofilm properties on water flow using microfluidic device experiments and pore-scale modeling. E. coli biofilm was established inside a microfluidic channel packed with unisized glass beads in a single layer. A 5*5 mm2 area was live-stained and imaged via confocal microscopy at three different growth stages to represent three biofilm levels in the system. After image analysis using FIJI and AutoCAD software, the flow in the bio-clogged porous media was simulated using COMSOL Multiphysics. In these simulations, biofilm was modeled as a separate permeable domain in porous media instead of an impermeable domain. A Forchheimer-corrected version of the Brinkman equations was applied to simulate the flow in the porous biofilm regions. Two properties of biofilms, namely biofilm porosity (BPO) and biofilm permeability (BPE), were altered to examine their effects on the permeability of the system. It was found that different values of BPO and BPE clearly affect the flow paths, velocity patterns, and permeability of the system. Considering biofilms as impermeable results in significant underestimations of the flow properties. In addition, two simplified modeling scenarios, namely uniform coating and symmetric contact filling, were investigated for a possible abridging in the arduous modeling procedure of the real biofilm geometry.

Infrastructure is not truly designed. It evolves. Infrastructure matures and becomes more ubiquitous, accessible, reliable, and transparent as ‘gateways’ begin to connect myriad systems [1]. Often these gateways that facilitate interconnection are ‘standards’ — be they formally defined or tacitly accepted practice. There is a process of convergence where communities begin to agree not only to use a common standard, but to use it in a common way. This presentation examines two case-studies of how standards adoption for data interoperability has progressed over time: The development of an international Arctic data coordination network over the last 15 years and work establishing the Research Data Alliance. Observations suggest that convergence on standards and their implementation is a dynamic process that works to negotiate and interpret multiple, sometimes conflicting, concerns. Standards can be adopted in different ways by different people and organizations and still enable interoperability. An inclusive, ecological methodology to system design is more resilient, adaptive, and responsive to interdisciplinary needs. Overall, maintenance of standards and their community is essential to their adoption and persistence.

Impact craters in the Pluto system as observed by New Horizons in July of 2015 revealed a previously-unknown deficit of small Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) less than ~1–2 km in diameter (Singer et al., 2019, Science) . New Horizons was poised to test this observation 3.5 years later with its next KBO close flyby of the cold classical KBO (486958) 2014 MU69 (nicknamed Ultima Thule). The images returned by New Horizons in early 2019 show MU69 is only modestly cratered, and potential craters on the surface show a shallow size-frequency distribution (SFD) similar to that of craters on Pluto and Charon (Stern et al. 2019, Science; Singer et al., 2019, EPSC-DPS; Spencer et al. 2020, Science). Some features on MU69 do have multiple morphologic indicators suggesting they are impact craters. There are regions on MU69 with few-to-no craters, even where the lighting is favorable for recognizing topographic features. The ~7-km-diameter depression (informally called Maryland) on the small lobe of MU69 is the largest easily observed feature that is likely to be an impact crater. There are also craters under 1 km in diameter, but no obvious craters between 1 and 7 km in diameter. The possible impact craters < ~1 km in diameter were divided into subgroups based on morphology, likelihood of being a crater , lighting geometry, and also into one possible geologic unit. Measurements/ratings were provided by several team members. All subgroups produced shallow-sloped SFDs (differential power-law slope less than approximately −2) similar to those seen on Pluto and Charon for the same size craters (when scaled for gravity and impact velocity). Whole-sale resurfacing through geologic processes is not expected for MU69. Thus many more craters and at least some heavily cratered terrains would be predicted if the impactor SFD slope were steeper (an average differential slope closer to −3; Greenstreet et al. 2019, ApJ). Both the apparent lack of craters overall, and the shallow SFD slopes, are consistent with a relatively benign collisional environment for MU69 (McKinnon et al., 2020, Science).

The ratio between slow or thermal (<2.2 km/s) and fast (>2.2 km/s) neutrons is known to be a good measure of the amount of water present in a radius of about 300m from the measurement. COSMOS detectors use this principle and measure neutrons by means of the helium isotope 3He. COSMOS has been in use for some time now and its large-scale observations are central to bridging the scaling gap between direct gravimetric observation of soil moisture (<<1m2) and the scale at which soil moisture is represented in hydrological models and satellite observations (>100m2). The main sources of 3He were nuclear warheads. The fortunate demise of nuclear weapons has had the less fortunate consequence that 3He has become expensive, leading to a search for more affordable alternatives. Here, we present laboratory results of a boron-based neutron detector called BLOSM. About 20% of naturally occurring boron is 10B, which has a large cross-section for thermal neutrons. When 10B absorbs a neutron, it decays into lithium and alpha particles. Alpha particles can then be detected by ZnS(Ar), which sends out UV photons. Because real-estate is at a premium for most neutron detection applications, most boron detectors are based on relatively expensive enriched boron with >99% 10B. In hydrology, space is usually less of an issue, so one innovation here is that we use natural boron in a detector that is simply a bit larger than one based on enriched boron but much cheaper. A second innovation, put forward by Jeroen Plomp of the Delft Reactor Institute, are wavelength shifting fibers that capture UV photons by downshifting the wavelength to green. Green photons have a wider angle of total internal reflection and tend to stay in the fiber until they exit at the end. Here, a third innovation comes into play, inspired by Spencer Axani’s $100 muon detector, namely the use of simple electronics and silicon photon multipliers (SiPMs). Because we want to know the ratio between fast and slow neutrons, we need two detectors, one that just counts the thermal neutrons that continuously zap around and through us, and one covered by a moderator that slows down faster neutrons to thermal levels, so that they can be detected. Presently, we can build two detectors for about EU 1000. We expect that after the development of some custom electronics, this will come down to around EU 500. Ideally, we would like to build a network of these detectors in Africa in conjunction with the TAHMO network (www.tahmo.org).

In the call of 2015, the European Geosciences Union funded the workshop “Water as hazard and water as heritage”, to take place in Rome in the consecutive year. The frame for the workshop was given by the “Spazi aperti” (=open spaces) event at the Accademia di Romania a Roma, where the convener (Maria Bostenaru Dan) was a fellow that time on a topic related to water and architecture. Spazi aperti XIV, the edition of 2016, was curated by Roxana Mihaly, former fellow of Accademia di Romania a Roma. The integration reached over the day of oral presentations, as posters of the workshop were displayed in frame of the exhibition in a creative way. Accademia di Romania a Roma opens in frame of Spazi aperti all its spaces, not only the conference room, and the posters were displayed in an underground corridor ending in spaces with related artistic works (for example the convener participated with an installation). The artists invited come from other foreign accademies in Rome, Rome being a city to be visited by scientists from humanities and artists since a number of centuries (“all ways lead to Rome”). This ensured international participation from Europe and beyond. The geosciences were also well represented, which enabled the dialogue between science and the arts. After the talks guided tours were organised to related exhibitions on water in related museums which emphasized the archaeology dimension. Apart of this event there were a number of scientific and musical events accompanying the exhibition, strenghening the dialogue. The event was part of the “month of international culture” in Rome, highly mediatised, and different of the exhibitions of just own fellows in other foreign academies. In 2018 the book was published and is subject of a poster in another session (EGU2019-2000) which all attendees are invited to see. More about the event can be followed on the webpage https://sites.google.com/site/egutopicalevent/

Continental shelves are important land-ocean interfaces where natural and anthropogenic processes, as well as sediment geochemistry regulate the sequestration of organic matter (OM) in the sediment. In the Northern Gulf of Mexico, along the Louisiana shelf, the Mississippi River discharge asserts strong seasonal controls over primary production and sedimentary reserves of minerals. Recent studies have shown the importance of mineral-organic matter interactions in the sedimentary OM preservation, both of which are abundant in this region. Thus, the major objective of this work is to understand the spatial and temporal variability of the sediment organic carbon (OC) directly bound to the reactive iron (rFe) mineral phases such as goethite, ferrihydrite, lepidocrocite and hematite. Sediment samples were collected from five sites along the river plume during periods of low (August/September 2016) and high (May 2017) river discharge. Average rFe content in the top 20 cm of sediment was significantly higher at all sites in May (6.9 ±1.5 mg gdw-1) compared to August (4.3± 0.6 mg gdw-1), while particulate OC content in these sediments was higher in August (11.9 ± 3.7 mg gdw-1) compared to May (7.4± 4.7 mg gdw-1). However, the bulk OC bound to rFe in these sediments did not vary significantly between the two seasons and ranged between 2.3 - 3.4 mg gdw-1. Molar OC: Fe ratios in the OC associated with rFe ranged between 0.9-6.2, with higher ratios in the deeper sediment sections (5-20 cm) than at the top (0-5 cm). Our results indicate that 27- 32% of the total OC in sediment is associated with rFe phase and preserved in these recent shelf sediments. A combination of X-ray diffractometry and Fe-K Edge X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy analyses were carried out to identify the mineralogical composition of rFe bound to the organic carbon in the sediments. Preliminary findings indicate that most of the iron is found as non-reactive iron in clay mineral smectite, but the dominant form of rFe associated with OC is goethite.

Rating curves are one of the most applied tools in hydrology for first instance flood analysis. However, there are often few of them in a watershed. One way to fill this gap is to derive synthetic rating curves using the conceptual model HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage). Indeed, this model computes the height in the nearest water course required for any location to be flooded using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). To assess the sensitivity of the computed synthetic rating curves to its forcing parameters, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was performed using the VARS (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) framework. Then, an a priori criteria of uniform flow such as Froude number and river reach slopes were added to identify the reaches where the model should be valid. HAND was implemented within PHYSITEL, a specialized GIS for distributed hydrological models. Synthetic rating curves were constructed using the geometric properties of a river segment and the Manning equation, providing a posteriori a mean of linking simulated stream flows to potential inundated areas. As part of the calibration process of the model, the GSA was conducted for four parameters (length of the river segment, Manning coefficients for water, forest and other), the variation of the vertical spatial resolution of the LiDAR data was considered as well for this study. This methodology was tested in two different watersheds in Quebec, Canada. Seven hydrometric stations were used as controls. The results showed that accurate synthetic rating curves can be derived with performance index such as PBIAS less than 20% and RMSE between (0.79m³/s and 10 m³/s) during the calibration. Therefore, for first instance, there is a potential to develop flood maps in areas without any hydrometric station or with a lack of high-quality bathymetric data as required by computationally intensive hydraulic models.

To understand the causes of climate change, it is necessary to consider the relationship between the various physical fields of our planet. The relationship between variations in atmospheric circulation and the magnetic field has received little attention.We studied changes of atmospheric circulation in the lower troposphere and geomagnetic field in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th and beginning of the 21th centuries to determine spatial-temporal relations between variations of these fields . Integral characteristics of atmospheric circulation and geomagnetic field have been investigated in the latitudinal band 40-70o N , applying the same approach. In the indicated latitudinal range, the main centers of action of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere are located (Canadian and Siberian anticyclones, North Atlantic ridge, and Icelandic and Aleutian depressions and European trough), as well as global geomagnetic anomalies (Canadian and Siberian). For the analyzed time period there is the most complete set of observational data, which ensures high reliability of the results obtained. The time diagrams were plotted for atmospheric circulation and magnetic field by their integral characteristics. Their comparison showed that the minima and maxima of the pressure field and the full vector of the geomagnetic field coincide quite well. This allows to assume that trends in changes in the geomagnetic field and atmospheric circulation, which were outlined at the beginning of this millennium, will continue in the coming decades. For prediction of global changes of the air pressure and geomagnetic fields in the future it is possible using the same methodology.

Microbial transformation and decomposition of organic matter in sediments constitutes one of the largest fluxes of carbon in marine environments. Mineralization of sedimentary organic matter by microorganisms results in selective degradation such that bioavailable or accessible compounds are rapidly metabolized while more recalcitrant, complex compounds are preserved and buried in sediment (Mahmoudi et al., 2017). Recent studies have found that the ability to use different carbon sources appears to vary among microorganisms, suggesting that the availability of certain pools of carbon can be specific to the taxa that utilize the pool. This implies that organic matter mineralization in marine environments may depend on the metabolic potential of the microbial populations that are present and active. The goal of our study was to investigate the extent to which organic matter availability and transformation may be species-specific using sediment from Guaymas Basin (Gulf of California). We carried out time-series incubations using bacterial isolates and sterilized sediment in the IsoCaRB system (Beaupre et al., 2016) which allowed us to measure the production rates and natural isotopic signatures (δ13C and Δ14C) of microbially-respired CO2. Separate incubations using two different marine bacterial isolates (Vibrio sp. and Pseudoalteromonas sp.) and sterilized Guaymas Basin sediment under oxic conditions showed that the rate and total quantity of organic matter metabolized by these two species differs. Approximately twice as much CO2 was collected during the Vibrio sp. incubation compared to the Pseudoalteromonas sp. incubation. Moreover, the rate at which organic matter was metabolized by the Vibrio sp. was much higher than the Pseudoalteromonas sp. indicating the intrinsic availability of organic matter in sediments may depend on the species that is present and active. Isotopic analyses of microbially respired CO2 will be used to constrain the type and age of organic matter that is accessible to each species. Moreover, molecular analysis of subsamples collected from each incubation will link carbon utilization with the underlying gene expression. Our study sheds light on the degree to which the metabolic capacities of microorganisms affect carbon transformation in sedimentary environments.

Imagery from the GOES series has been a key element of U.S. operational weather forecasting for four decades. While GOES observations are used extensively by human forecasters for situational awareness, there has been limited usage of GOES imager data in numerical weather prediction (NWP), and operational data assimilation (DA) has ignored cloud and precipitating pixels. The motivation of this project is to bring the benefits of GOES-R Series enhanced capabilities to advance convective-scale DA for improving convective-scale forecasts. We have developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) prototype, dubbed “GOES Radar Estimation via Machine Learning to Inform NWP (GREMLIN)” that fuses GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) information to produce maps of synthetic composite radar reflectivity. We find that the ability of CNNs to utilize spatial context is essential for this application and offers breakthrough improvement in skill compared to traditional pixel-by-pixel based approaches. Making use of ABI spatial information potentially provides benefits over radiance assimilation approaches that are limited by saturation of radiances in pixels with precipitation. This presentation will briefly describe the GREMLIN model and characterize its performance across meteorological regimes. We are developing a dense neural network (DNN) to produce vertical profiles of radar reflectivity and latent heating based on the two-dimensional fields output from GREMLIN. The resulting three-dimensional fields of latent heating will be used to initialize NWP simulations of convective-scale phenomena. Another DNN will be developed to produce uncertainty estimates of latent heating for each pixel. Our approach for data assimilation will be described and is innovative in being the first-time machine learning (ML) will be used for the nonlinear latent heating observation operator in the NOAA hybrid Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and/or JEDI systems. The approach will provide all the elements of the Jacobian needed for GSI DA and has the advantage of automatically maintaining the tangent linear and adjoint models through finite difference mathematics.

Radiation hazards at commercial aviation altitudes up to suborbital space have been known for decades including those from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs), and more recently radiation belt particle precipitation (RBPP). The complex radiation field that derives from these primary particle sources creates safety concerns for aerospace crew and passengers. Because of this safety hazard, the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) program was developed to provide global aerospace radiation environment monitoring. The ARMAS TRL 9 operational system has now achieved monitoring from the surface of the Earth into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) with aircraft, high altitude balloon, suborbital vehicle, satellite and ISS flights over the past year. We present the latest results from i) the various flight domains; ii) the calibrations of the ARMAS system with the Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (TEPC); and iii) the ongoing real-time data assimilation of ARMAS data into the RADIAN system using NAIRAS v2 baseline global fields and CARI-7 verifications. We also describe progress towards 24/7 atmospheric monitoring from both the perspective of new sensor development as well as new stratospheric monitoring platforms.

Brazil’s Amazon deforestation is one of the world’s great environmental problems, and the fate of the “TransPurus” region – the vast block of intact forest to the west of the Purus River in Brazil’s state of Amazonas – will be the deciding factor in maintaining Amazonia’s biogeochemical cycles and associated ecosystem services, including carbon storage and water cycling and biodiversity. The Purus River effectively divides Brazilian Amazonia between its eastern side (where the forest has been heavily affected by deforestation, fragmentation and degradation), and the western side (where the forest is largely intact due to lack of accessibility by road). This situation in western Amazonia is likely to change radically if the proposed AM-366 and associated roads are built, opening this block of forest with a connection to Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho). The AM-366 would cross the Purus River at Tapauá and link BR-319 to Tefé, Coarí and Juruá. BR-319 is a highway that was-abandoned in 1988 but that has been “maintained” since 2015 while awaiting approval of a federal environmental impact assessment (EIA) before being “reconstructed.” Another threat comes from the “Solimões Sedimentary Basin” project that would open a substantial part of the TranPurus area to oil and gas drilling, potentially totaling thousands of wells. This would greatly increase the probability of roads being built to reduce the costs of servicing these wells. Roads are the primary drivers of deforestation in Brazil. The TransPurus area would be subject to invasion by actors ranging from landless farmers to large “land grabbers” (grileiros), and would be likely to attract oil palm and logging interests. Logging can potentially provoke large-scale forest degradation in conjunction with its increasing the vulnerability of forest to fire. Should the huge area of intact forest in this region be lost, potential release of greenhouse gases would be of a scale that could be a key factor in pushing global temperatures beyond a “tipping point” leading to global warming escaping from human control to begin a “runaway greenhouse” ending in a “hothouse Earth.” It would also threaten the source of water vapor for the “flying rivers” – winds that carry water vapor recycled through Amazonian trees to São Paulo and other parts of Brazil and neighboring countries.